FIFA World Cup 2026 heat risk prompts warnings for players and fans

The FIFA World Cup 2026 is set to kick off in the United States, Mexico and Canada between June 11 and July 19, but the climate crisis could make conditions too hot for several football matches to be played safely, posing risks to players and fans, according to scientists.

A report by the global climate research collaboration World Weather Attribution (WWA) said about 26 of the tournament’s 104 matches are highly likely to be played in temperatures above the safety limits set by the international professional footballers’ union FIFPRO.

Researchers used the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, or WBGT, as the basis for assessing the risk.

The index measures how effectively the body can release heat, taking into account heat, humidity, sunlight and wind speed.

In addition, about five matches are expected to see temperatures rise above 28°C WBGT, equivalent to 38°C in dry conditions or 30°C in highly humid conditions, making it too hot for play and requiring cancellation.

These figures have almost doubled compared with the 1994 World Cup, which was also held in North America, as a result of climate change pushing global temperatures higher.

In 1994, conditions were about 0.7°C cooler than they are today.

Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London, a co-founder of WWA and the study lead, said: “It is dangerous for the players, as well as for fans who may gather outdoors. They are at even greater risk because they do not have large medical teams looking after them in the same way athletes do.”

Data from the study said Portugal will face the heaviest heat exposure, with an 80% chance that temperatures will exceed 26°C in all three of its group-stage matches.

The Netherlands, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde follow, all with a 74% chance of encountering high temperatures.

Defending champions Argentina will face a far from favourable situation.

In their match on Monday (June 22, 2026) in Dallas at 1pm, temperatures will certainly exceed 26°C, with a 22% chance of exceeding 28°C.

Argentina’s two remaining matches carry risks of exceeding 26°C of 14% and 24%, respectively.

Dr Chris Mullington, a senior lecturer at Imperial College London, explained: “We should not judge the risk by air temperature alone, because high humidity interferes with the evaporation of sweat, which is the body’s main cooling mechanism.”

FIFPRO recommends hydration breaks when the WBGT index exceeds 26°C. If the index rises above 28°C, postponement should be considered until conditions are safe.

The report said there is about a 12.5% chance that the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey will face heat levels requiring mitigation measures, and a 2.7% risk that heat will rise to a level at which the match should be cancelled.

Otto added: “The fact that the World Cup final, one of the world’s biggest sporting events, faces heat risk at a level where the match should be postponed should be a warning sign for FIFA and all football fans.”

Because of such high temperatures, this World Cup will be the first in history to include three-minute breaks midway through the first and second halves, in the 22nd and 67th minutes of every match, regardless of temperature, time, venue, or whether the stadium has a roof or air-conditioning.

Dr Mullington said heat may force players to change how they play, adding: “You may see more controlled football, because players will regulate their own tempo so their bodies are not pushed too hard and put in danger.”

More than 20 scientists have jointly signed an open letter to FIFA, saying current safety measures are insufficient and outdated compared with current scientific evidence, and calling for urgent improvements.

Douglas Casa, a professor at the University of Connecticut and one of the signatories, said: “The hydration break in each half should be longer than three minutes, with at least five to six minutes each time, so the body can truly recover.”

Andrew Simms, director of the New Weather Institute and coordinator of the letter, added: “We are concerned that FIFA is being too complacent about player health and safety, because problems caused by the body failing to cool down can occur and escalate very quickly.”

FIFA, for its part, has insisted that it has heat-risk mitigation models adjusted to real conditions, has installed temperature-controlled substitute benches at every outdoor stadium, and has meteorological teams supporting decision-making throughout the tournament.

In addition to athletes, fans are also considered a high-risk group because they must sit in stadiums in the heat for several hours.

More than 33% of the venues used for the tournament, including those in Miami, Kansas City and New York, have no air-conditioning or roof.

FIFA has therefore prepared measures for fans, such as allowing bottled water into stadiums, installing misting systems and providing cooling buses if weather forecasts indicate extreme heat.

Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, posted on social media, warning that heat risks directly affect both players and fans, and calling for a serious transition to clean energy to protect football.

Vincent Gouttebarge, FIFPRO’s medical director, said the forecasts underline the need for risk-mitigation strategies to protect players’ health and performance when they are exposed to extreme heat.

Some scientists have suggested that, in the future, FIFA should reschedule the World Cup to cooler periods, such as early or late in the year, especially in areas at high risk from summer heat.

This would be similar to the previous World Cup in Qatar in 2022, which had to be moved to November and December because of high summer temperatures in the region.

“We may see more World Cups being held in winter, as we saw in Qatar in 2022, or in cooler climates, such as northern Europe,” Donal Mullan, a researcher at Queen’s University Belfast, predicted in another study focusing on temperatures during the 2026 World Cup.

In addition, some have called for matches to be held in the evening, when temperatures are lower and risks are reduced.

But because the tournament is being held in North America, moving games to the evening would put them late at night in Europe, the highest-value audience group for television networks, with World Cup broadcast rights worth as much as US$3.9 billion.

Even so, the opening match and the final will be staged at 1pm in Mexico and 3pm in New York, respectively, which are among the hottest periods of the day.

Some, therefore, believe the decision to introduce hydration breaks in all matches may be linked to economic reasons.

These six minutes of broadcast time also amount to a new advertising break with a large audience, probably larger than during the 15-minute half-time interval.

Advertising rates vary greatly depending on the match, but the highest estimate for a 30-second advert is about US$585,000 for the final, expected during a hydration break.

Beyond their economic value, these breaks will also affect the flow of play.

Some believe they will interrupt the game, while others see them as a good opportunity for coaches to adjust tactics.

Global warming is no longer a distant issue.

It affects every sector, including sport, and could turn a festival of joy such as the World Cup into a life-threatening event if there is insufficient preparation.