Rajabhat Poll: Orange leads; red gains as blue slips

The network of 38 Rajabhat universities nationwide has released survey findings on public opinion ahead of the 2026 election. The data indicate that the “orange” party remains broadly more popular than Bhumjaithai. A comparison of two survey rounds also suggests that “red” has gained momentum, while “blue” has declined.

On 29 January 2026, Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University, a press conference was held to announce findings from the Rajabhat Poll on the 2026 general election and the constitutional referendum. The poll was produced by the Conference of Presidents of Rajabhat Universities of Thailand, in collaboration with the nationwide network of 38 Rajabhat universities.

This was the second Rajabhat Poll survey for the 8 February 2026 general election. The poll used online surveys and telephone interviews, with a screened sample of 11,700 respondents, distributed across provinces and regions nationwide where Rajabhat universities are located. Data were collected between 19–25 January 2026.

Assoc Prof Adisorn Naowanondha, chair of the Conference of Presidents of Rajabhat Universities of Thailand, said at the outset that the poll did not collect data from Rajabhat university students. Instead, it surveyed members of the public nationwide, across all occupations, age groups and generations in a balanced way. He said the aim was to ensure political parties campaigning in the election understand what people want, and that the poll was not intended to direct politics in any way.

Top issues: livelihoods first, corruption next

• On the first issue, the poll found that the party policy most influencing voters’ decisions was livelihoods and the cost of living, followed by corruption.
• On the next issue, 71.6% of eligible voters said they intend to choose both their constituency MP and party-list MP from the same party.
• As for readiness, 70.9% said they remember which party—and which ballot number—they will vote for, but around 29% said they “do not remember”.

Thais choosing party policy over personalities

Another key point was what most influences the party-list vote. The poll found 47.1% said they choose their party-list MP primarily based on party policy, with performance coming next.

For constituency MPs, 45.3% said they also decide mainly based on party policy, followed by the candidate’s qualifications.

Referendum likely to pass: nearly 70% back a new constitution

On the referendum on drafting a new constitution, 67.8% of eligible voters said they support amending the constitution.

‘Orange’ leads both in party support and PM candidate preference

In the headline findings on parties and preferred prime-minister candidates, the poll found:

• 38.8% chose the People’s Party
• 17.9% chose Pheu Thai Party
• 15.6% chose Bhumjaithai Party

For preferred prime-minister candidates, the results were:

• “Head Teng” Nattapong Ruangpanyawut, leader of the People’s Party: 36.7%
• “Dr Shane” Yodchanan Wongsawat (Pheu Thai): 15.9%
• “PM Noo” Anutin Charnvirakul (Bhumjaithai): 15.2%

Comparing two surveys: ‘red’ up, ‘blue’ down, ‘orange’ steady

At the briefing, the team also presented a comparison between Rajabhat Poll round one and round two.

Asst Prof Rattakorn Kidkarn, secretary-general of the Conference of Presidents of Rajabhat Universities and vice-president for academic affairs, research and innovation, said the first survey was conducted between 22–30 December 2025, overlapping the period before and during candidate registration, and therefore included an additional “have you decided yet?” question. The second survey removed that issue.

Comparing the two rounds, the changes were:

• Pheu Thai: up 5.4% in round two
• Bhumjaithai: down 5.7% in round two
• People’s Party: steady, with a slight increase because its level was already high

For prime-ministerial candidates:

• “Head Teng” rose 6.7%
• Anutin fell 9.2%
• Dr Shane Yodchanan increased

Regional picture: orange leads most regions; red leads West; Democrats lead South

By region, the People’s Party ranked highest in the North, Central, East and the Northeast.

Pheu Thai ranked highest in the West, while the South remained the Democrat Party’s strongest region.

Prime-ministerial preferences mirrored party popularity: Head Teng ranked first in the North, Central, East and the Northeast. Dr Shane’s highest score was in the West, while Abhisit Vejjajiva, leader of the Democrat Party, held the strongest popularity in the South.

Age groups: Gen Z and Gen Y favour orange; Gen X splits; boomers spread

By age group, Gen Z and Gen Y favoured the People’s Party.

• Younger Gen X (aged 40–49) also continued to prefer the People’s Party.
• Older Gen X tended to back Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai.

However, when both Gen X sub-groups were combined, Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai emerged as the most popular overall.

Among baby boomers, preferences were spread across the three parties, while each generation’s prime-minister choice broadly aligned with the party it preferred.

Five key takeaways: policy-driven politics and economic stakes

Assoc Prof Adisorn summed up what the nationwide Rajabhat University network poll suggests about the election:

1. Economic policy will be a key condition shaping voter decisions.
2. 71.6% said they would choose the same party for both MP ballots.
3. 70.9% said they are ready and have already decided which number to vote for, because they remember it clearly.
4. For both constituency and party-list MPs, voters will decide mainly on party policy.
5. 67.8% agreed with amending the constitution, although some areas show strong opposition even as the national picture reflects the overall figure.

Adisorn added that Thai politics is shifting from choosing individuals to choosing party policy, reflecting a more policy-based politics focused on tangible outcomes.

He said parties that can meet economic needs will have a better chance of winning, while parties proposing structural reform ideas will hold a clear advantage in the election.