Isan: 'Red vs Blue' battle, 133 seats at stake for Pheu Thai

The Isan region, which holds 133 seats in the upcoming election, is a key battlefield where Pheu Thai must fight hard to retain its long-standing position as the dominant party. Pheu Thai faces stiff competition from Bhumjaithai, which has been gaining ground.

According to a "Nation Poll" survey, Pheu Thai risks losing its long-held dominance in Isan for the first time since 2001, with Bhumjaithai leading by a narrow margin in terms of public support. The survey suggests that Pheu Thai must employ a full-force strategy to secure its position, especially by leveraging the popularity of its prime ministerial candidate, Yothachana Wong Sawat, and deploying a strong final push in the last stretch of the campaign.

The survey, conducted from January 23-26, 2026, focused on various communities in Isan, both within and outside municipal areas, and included 10,890 samples nationwide. The results show that Bhumjaithai is currently leading with 28.58% support in Isan, followed by Pheu Thai at 25.81%. The survey also revealed a higher preference for Bhumjaithai in the regional parliamentary vote, with Bhumjaithai at 31.06% and Pheu Thai at 23.33%.

This marks a significant shift in the region, where Pheu Thai, which has dominated Isan for decades, is now being challenged by Bhumjaithai. The rise of Bhumjaithai reflects the growing influence of nationalist sentiments in Isan, where the party has been rallying support with fresh political figures, including commerce minister Suphajee Suthumpun, who has been working hard to appeal to the conservative wing of the electorate.

For Pheu Thai, the task of retaining its stronghold in Isan is not easy. The party has traditionally won in the region thanks to its deep roots in the area, with slogans like “Thai Rak Thai” and “Pheu Thai Land Slide” resonating with voters. However, the party’s long-standing dominance is now under threat from the Bhumjaithai Party, which has become a serious contender.

In the 2023 election, Pheu Thai claimed 73 seats in Isan, including significant victories in provinces like Udon Thani (7 seats out of 9), Khon Kaen (6 out of 11), Nakhon Ratchasima (12 out of 16), Roi Et (5 out of 8), and Surin (3 out of 8). Meanwhile, other parties like Bhumjaithai took 35 seats in the region, the largest share after Pheu Thai, with the Palang Pracharat Party and the Move Forward Party taking 7 seats each.

Looking ahead, the Isan region is likely to see fierce competition, especially as Bhumjaithai has been gaining traction with its emphasis on nationalism and economic policies appealing to the region’s voters. The emergence of Supachai Suthampan, a key figure in the Thai government, as a prominent campaigner for Bhumjaithai, has added a new dynamic to the election.

A Pheu Thai key member, who is involved in the party's list of candidates, commented that the "Nation Poll" is the most accurate reflection of the current political landscape in Isan. The member stated that Pheu Thai still has a chance to win in certain provinces, including Nakhon Phanom, Yasothon, and Maha Sarakham. However, they also highlighted that provinces like Udon Thani, Nong Khai, Khon Kaen, Mukdahan, and Loei are critical battlegrounds where Pheu Thai needs to focus its efforts to secure victory.

One of the key provinces for Pheu Thai will be Nakhon Ratchasima, where the party hopes to maintain at least 12 seats. However, the competition is fierce, as the Palang Pracharat Party has been building alliances with local powerhouses in the region, including the influential political families of Wangsuphakijkosol, Chantharuangthong and Liptapallop.

Additionally, in areas like Nong Bua Lamphu, Pheu Thai may lose seats to "Chaiya Phromma" of the Kla Tham Party. In Roi Et, the party is fighting hard to retain its positions, with the prospect of losing two districts to Bhumjaithai.

Provinces like Ubon Ratchathani are at risk of losing one to two seats, with Pheu Thai’s stronghold potentially weakening due to competition from Bhumjaithai’s growing influence. The situation is similar in areas like Bueang Kan, where the party may need to fight to maintain its single seat.

In southern Isan, the provinces of Sisaket and Surin are also at risk of losing one seat each, with the national election results having a significant impact on these regions. However, should Pheu Thai maintain its current number of seats in these provinces, it would be considered a success.

Pheu Thai’s leadership, particularly in areas like Buriram, has been focusing on defending their positions in local constituencies. In fact, Pheu Thai has managed to secure a small but significant lead in Buriram's District 7, which had been a close race with Bhumjaithai.

The last seven days of campaigning, from February 1-7, 2026, are expected to be crucial for Pheu Thai, especially in Isan. The key to victory will not just be the party’s popularity but also its ability to rally its forces, focus its campaign efforts, and make strategic investments in key areas with a high chance of success.

This election is expected to be one of the most challenging for Pheu Thai, as it faces fierce competition from Bhumjaithai and other parties. Despite the challenges, Pheu Thai will likely use all available resources to defend its stronghold and attempt to secure a victory in this critical region.