Thailand’s Tourism Revenue Forecast to Slump 20% by 2025 Amid Spending Drop
Thai Tourism Council warns of significant post-pandemic revenue decline as high-spending Chinese visitors stay away and tourists seek 'value for money'
- Thailand's tourism revenue is forecast to fall by over 20% in 2025 compared to pre-pandemic 2019 levels, dropping from 1.91 trillion to 1.52 trillion baht.
- This revenue decline is steeper than the anticipated 17% drop in tourist arrivals, indicating that the visitors who do come are spending significantly less money.
- The spending drop is attributed to a shift in tourist demographics, including a sharp decrease in high-spending Chinese visitors and a rise in budget-conscious travelers.
- Other negative factors contributing to the slump include the global economic slowdown, a stronger baht, and tourist concerns over safety.
Thailand's tourism sector is facing a significant post-pandemic challenge, with the Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) forecasting that foreign visitor revenue in 2025 will fall by over 20 per cent compared to pre-COVID levels.
The TCT estimates that revenue from international tourists will drop to approximately 1.52 trillion baht in 2025, a steep decline from the 1.91 trillion baht recorded in 2019.
This projected 20.2 per cent revenue slump is higher than the anticipated 17 per cent decrease in tourist volume.
The council expects 33.14 million tourists in 2025, which is 6.7 per cent lower than the figure for 2024, and 17 per cent down on the 2019 total.
The data highlights a critical trend: whilst fewer tourists are visiting, the ones who do are spending considerably less.
The TCT attributes the disproportionate fall in revenue to changing tourist behaviour and structure.
A key factor is the sharp decrease in high-spending Chinese visitors, offset by a continuous rise in Malaysian arrivals.
Tourists, in general, are now exhibiting behaviour focused on achieving better value for money. This trend is compounded by a growing proportion of budget-conscious Free Independent Travellers (FITs) and backpackers.
Negative economic pressures are also weighing heavily on the sector.
The TCT’s survey for the "Tourism Business Confidence Index in Thailand" for the third quarter of 2025 (Q3/2025) registered at 66, reflecting that operators nationwide consider the current situation "significantly below normal," a drop from 68 in the same quarter last year.
Key negative factors cited by businesses include domestic deflation, the global economic slowdown, a stronger baht, a lack of tourist confidence in safety, and the impact of the Thai-Cambodia conflict and localised flooding.
Despite these issues, positive elements include government stimulus programmes, a recovery in certain niche markets, and an increase in airline routes and passenger seats.
The recovery of the tourism industry's financial health remains slow and highly volatile.
Overall, establishments reported that their average revenue in Q3/2025 was just 44 per cent of the levels seen in 2019, having previously peaked at 64 per cent in the first quarter of 2023.
Regionally, the South demonstrated the most resilience, reporting the highest average revenue (50 per cent of 2019) and the highest occupancy rate (62 per cent), primarily due to its popularity as an international destination.
Bangkok’s index was the most volatile, whilst the North recorded the lowest revenue average at 39 per cent.
In terms of specific businesses, tour operators saw a marked decline, and souvenir shops registered the lowest confidence levels across all surveyed periods, pointing to fierce competition and the shift away from high-value purchases.
Conversely, entertainment venues saw a clear increase in confidence.
The employment picture is somewhat brighter, with the total labour force now at approximately 87 per cent of pre-COVID levels.
However, this is significantly better than the revenue recovery, suggesting that establishments have rehired staff to cope with activity but have not yet achieved pre-pandemic revenue efficiency, potentially impacting profitability.
Looking ahead, operators are optimistic for the final quarter of 2025, as the confidence index is forecast to rise to 72, reflecting the beginning of Thailand's peak high season.
The Northern region is predicted to see the largest surge in confidence for Q4/2025 (Index 80) as it enters the cooler winter months, followed by Bangkok (75) and the South (74).
