New Year tourism expected to generate up to 76.5bn baht as domestic travel offsets softer foreign demand

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) expects tourism revenue during the year-end and New Year 2026 holiday period to reach 70.105-76.5 billion baht, down 2-9% from the same period last year, as a softer foreign market is partly offset by stronger domestic travel.

TAT governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the foreign tourist market is expected to slow, while domestic travel should rise in both traveller numbers and revenue.

Foreign arrivals forecast to fall

Between December 20, 2025 and January 1, 2026, TAT expects 1.4-1.5 million foreign arrivals, down 6-12% year-on-year, generating 51.6-58 billion baht in revenue, a decline of 4-15%.

TAT expects the top 10 source markets over the New Year period to be, in order: China, Russia, India, Malaysia, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Singapore, the United States, Eastern Europe, and Germany.

Positive travel drivers

Thapanee pointed to several supportive factors, including Bangkok’s recognition as one of the world’s winter destinations for 2025 alongside London, Cancún and Paris, according to Tripadvisor’s Winter Travel Index Report 2025. Bangkok has also been ranked by several global online media outlets and online travel agencies (OTAs), she said.

Thailand’s image is also improving, particularly in China. Data from Chinese OTAs suggests growing interest and more positive perceptions of Thailand. Searches for the keyword “Thailand” on Baidu and Ctrip rose after the official visit to China in November by Their Majesties the King and Queen, indicating renewed interest in travelling to Thailand.

On Chinese social media platforms Weibo and Xiaohongshu, TAT said the share of content describing Thailand as safe, friendly and convenient to travel has increased.

Immigration Bureau daily arrival statistics from December 1-12, 2025 also showed the contraction in visitors from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan easing to 7-27% compared with November, when the decline was 11-36%.

Another positive factor is aviation. At least 10 new routes are set to launch over the New Year period, including services from China, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and Vietnam, as well as charter flights from Poland, the Czech Republic, Russia and Uzbekistan to major tourist cities such as Bangkok, U-Tapao, Chiang Rai, Phuket and Krabi.

TAT said forward bookings for the New Year period are up 6% year-on-year overall. By market, Israel, France, the United States, Germany, Italy and Hong Kong recorded the strongest increases, with forward bookings rising by more than 14%. Other Asian markets within the top 15 — especially China, Japan and Taiwan — showed booking growth of 1-4%.

The main destinations foreign tourists are booking for the holiday period are Bangkok, Phuket, Chiang Mai, Krabi and Koh Samui.

Key headwinds: floods and border fighting

TAT said a major negative factor for foreign tourism is the impact of southern flooding, particularly in Hat Yai district, Songkhla, including Kim Yong Market and key tourist sites, which have suffered heavy damage and are undergoing restoration. This has affected travel by Malaysian visitors, around 70% of whom enter Thailand via land border crossings.

TAT also warned that fighting along the Thai-Cambodian border since December 7 has affected confidence and the overall New Year tourism atmosphere. While there has been no blanket travel ban or cancellation advice for Thailand as a whole, widespread coverage in international media and on social platforms — along with travel advisories from several countries urging people to avoid or not travel to seven border provinces — has weighed on sentiment.

“If the situation drags on and stricter measures become necessary, it could affect travel decisions,” Thapanee said. “Some tourists may delay bookings or switch to other destinations, especially medium-haul and short-haul markets that are highly sensitive to safety concerns, such as Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, China, Australia and New Zealand, where typical booking lead times are two to four weeks.”

Thapanee added that for the domestic tourism market, during the five-day long holiday from December 31, 2025 to January 4, 2026, Thailand is expected to record about 4.96 million domestic visitor trips, up 7%, generating an estimated 18.5 billion baht in revenue, also up 7%.

Average nationwide occupancy is projected at 78%. The highest occupancy is expected in Bangkok (87%), followed by the North (79%). The Central, Eastern and Southern regions are each forecast at 77%, while the Northeast is expected at 73%.

Supporting factors for domestic travel include cooler weather, which is expected to encourage more Thais to travel, especially to destinations in the North, as well as tourism promotion activities by TAT and its partners. These include the Amazing Thailand Countdown 2026, which is expected to help create a festive atmosphere and boost travel momentum during the New Year period.

THA says ASEAN tourists slowing trips to Bangkok

Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association (THA), said Bangkok hotels during the New Year 2026 period are expected to see occupancy of around 80%, slightly lower than last year, due to the impact of the Thai–Cambodian border dispute, which has slowed foreign arrivals, particularly from ASEAN countries.

However, he said the overall outlook in major destinations — Bangkok, Phuket and Chiang Mai — remains strong, with five-star hotels expected to be fully booked, which should also lift bookings at four-star hotels.

Room rates over the New Year period are expected to be close to last year’s levels, he said, as overall demand has softened somewhat, though prices are still holding up well.