TAT may cut 2026 foreign arrivals target below 33m
Thailand may lower its 2026 foreign tourist target if the Middle East conflict drags beyond Q2, as energy costs and flights pressure travel.
- Thailand's 2026 foreign tourist arrival target of 33 million may be lowered due to ongoing external challenges.
- The primary reason for the potential revision is the prolonged Middle East conflict, which was initially expected to end sooner.
- Other contributing factors include high energy prices and a global economic slowdown impacting the tourism sector.
- To offset a potential drop in arrivals, the government plans to focus on increasing tourism revenue by encouraging higher spending per visitor.
Tourism and Sports Minister Surasak Phancharoenworakul said on Wednesday that the Middle East conflict, energy prices and the global economic slowdown were external factors continuing to affect Thailand’s tourism sector.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has set a target of around 33 million foreign tourist arrivals for 2026, based on a scenario in which the Middle East conflict remains unresolved within the second quarter.
Surasak said he had instructed the TAT to carefully review a “new target”, as the previous assumption that the conflict would not be prolonged may have been “too optimistic”. If the war extends beyond the second quarter, Thailand may need to lower its foreign tourist arrival target to reflect reality.
He added that tourism revenue would have to be protected by increasing value, encouraging higher spending per head and improving visitor satisfaction.
“I have assigned the TAT to review the 2026 foreign tourist arrival target, which was most recently forecast at 33 million. However, the figure may decline depending on the prolonged Middle East conflict, which has yet to end within the second quarter. If the conflict can be resolved in the second quarter, foreign arrival numbers should improve,” he said.
According to the latest report from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Thailand welcomed 12,908,321 foreign tourists from January 1 to May 17, 2026, down 3.31% from the same period last year. Foreign tourist spending generated around 629.57 billion baht.
The top five source markets were China with 2,151,898 visitors, Malaysia with 1,459,942, India with 948,960, Russia with 912,085 and South Korea with 509,762.
Over the past week, short-haul markets showed signs of recovery, supported by family travel during India’s school holidays. Indian arrivals reached almost 50,000 in the week, while long holidays in Indonesia and the resumption of normal flight routes also helped bring in more tourists from the Middle East.
Long-haul markets, however, slowed as they entered the low season, a normal seasonal trend. Overall foreign arrivals totalled 469,173 last week, down 3,584 or 0.76% from the previous week, averaging 67,025 visitors per day.
The top five markets for the week were China with 86,394 visitors, Malaysia with 69,445, India with 49,999, Russia with 16,528 and Taiwan with 16,024.
Foreign arrivals are expected to increase next week, supported by long holidays in several markets, including South Korea, Hong Kong and Israel, as well as Thailand’s energy situation returning to normal, fuel prices adjusting in line with global market conditions and measures to promote the country’s safety image.
Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association (THA), said after attending a private-sector meeting with Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul on May 15, where CEOs and senior executives from 10 industry groups were invited, the hotel and tourism sector had raised several issues.
These included the impact of the Middle East conflict on airfares and flight cancellations, with the sector calling for measures to make travel to Thailand cheaper.
The THA also proposed that the government support a co-payment scheme to stimulate domestic tourism, as travel costs have risen. It also called for support for charter flights on several routes to reduce the cost of travelling to Thailand.
The association further urged the government to support the creation of a booking platform for Thai travellers to reserve rooms with legally licensed hotels. The platform would charge lower marketing fees than foreign online travel agencies (OTAs), allowing tourists to pay less for rooms while hotels receive better prices than through foreign OTAs.
Domestic tourism revenue in 2025 reached 1.16 trillion baht, of which around 20%, or more than 200 billion baht, came from accommodation spending.
Thienprasit also called for legislation to regulate foreign OTAs, requiring them to pay marketing-related taxes to the government and ensuring fair commission rates, which he said are currently very high. He also proposed abolishing rate parity, which requires the same room price across all sales channels for the same room type and date — a practice already scrapped in several European countries.
He added that the government should not introduce an exit tax of 1,000 baht per person on Thais travelling overseas at this stage.
“The timing is not right. We would like the government to put it on hold and consider it carefully,” he said.
