AI could boost global trade by 40% by 2040 if access gaps are reduced, WTO warns
WTO report shows AI has the potential to increase global trade by 40% by 2040 if digital and technology access gaps are closed worldwide.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to usher in a new era of economic growth. AI can transform production, exchange, and consumption of goods and services, generating significant changes in the global economy.
Whether AI drives economic convergence or divergence will depend on the choices made today. With appropriate frameworks, trade can play a key role in ensuring AI benefits are shared widely. The 2025 World Trade Report, published by the World Trade Organization (WTO), examines the complex and rapidly evolving relationship between AI and international trade, exploring how it can foster inclusive growth.
The report highlights that AI could stimulate global trade by almost 40% by 2040, if trade-related access gaps are bridged. Proper AI policies could increase cross-border trade of goods and services by up to 40% within the same timeframe, as AI boosts productivity while simultaneously lowering trade costs.
Addressing access and inclusion
For AI and trade to contribute to inclusive growth, policies must reduce the digital divide, invest in labour skills, and maintain an open, predictable trade environment.
The report warns that AI could significantly boost trade and GDP by 2040, but growth will vary depending on policy frameworks and the speed of technology adoption across low-, middle-, and high-income economies. Even though global GDP increases of 12–13% are projected, AI can amplify the role of trade as a driver of inclusive economic growth, particularly in goods critical to AI, such as raw materials, semiconductors, and intermediate products. WTO estimates that AI-related trade in these sectors reached US$2.3 trillion in 2023.
WTO director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted in the report’s foreword: “AI has immense potential to reduce trade costs and increase productivity. Yet access to AI and digital trade remains highly unequal.”
She added that combining trade, investment, and supportive policies will allow AI to generate new growth opportunities for all economies. Trade can ensure AI benefits are accessible to everyone, and the WTO is committed to supporting these efforts.
For low- and middle-income economies, the report found that narrowing digital infrastructure gaps by 50% and increasing AI adoption could raise income by 15% in low-income economies and 14% in middle-income economies.
Trade rules restricting access to AI have doubled
The report also stresses the need for open and predictable trade policies, noting that restrictions on AI-related products have doubled, from 130 items in 2012 to 500 in 2024. These restrictions, mainly imposed by high- and upper-middle-income countries, include tariffs as high as 45% on AI-related goods, limiting access for lower-income economies.
Investment in AI education and skills training, along with appropriate labour-market policies, can mitigate the expansion of inequality. The WTO has convened member discussions on trade measures related to AI, highlighting 80 key trade concerns and exploring inclusive AI trade strategies.
Additionally, commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services and revised Information Technology Agreements may further improve AI access and inclusivity.
At the launch of the report on September 17, 2025, Okonjo-Iweala stated that the report was released amid the most severe global trade crisis in 80 years. Despite risks to trade, growth, and development, there remain bright spots, and one of the most promising is the potential of artificial intelligence.
She warned: “Ongoing political responses to trade, compounded by decades of underinvestment in education, skills training, and social protection, must not be repeated in the context of artificial intelligence.”
