Airlines worldwide hit by Iran war with fare rises, cuts and closures
Jet fuel prices have risen more than 80%, prompting carriers to cut 9.3 million seats and raise fares, with warnings of possible shortages.
- Soaring jet fuel prices, which have risen over 80% due to the war with Iran, have forced US-based Spirit Airlines to permanently cease operations.
- Airlines worldwide have responded to the crisis by cutting flights, resulting in a reduction of 9.3 million seats, with Middle Eastern carriers like Qatar Airways and Emirates making the largest cuts.
- Ticket prices have increased significantly, with average US international fares up 16% and domestic fares up 24% compared to the previous year.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz for 10 weeks, amid a fragile ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, has made global air travel one of the industries hit hard by soaring oil prices.
Jet fuel prices, which are largely derived from crude oil, have risen by more than 80% since the US and Israel went to war with Iran in late February, forcing airlines to raise ticket prices, cut flights or do both.
The clearest example of an airline affected by the fallout is US-based Spirit Airlines, which announced on Saturday (May 2, 2026) that it would permanently cease operations.
The move was widely seen as a result of surging fuel costs.
According to aviation analytics company Cirium, airlines in several markets, including the US, China, Japan, Australia and many European countries, have cut flights, equivalent to a reduction of 9.3 million seats between Monday (June 1, 2026) and Wednesday (September 30, 2026).
The largest announced cuts have been in the Middle East, where regional aviation remains heavily affected by airspace closures after Iran attacked several regional aviation hubs, including Dubai and Doha.
Qatar Airways alone has made major flight cuts, equivalent to two million seats on flights from June to October.
Emirates in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Etihad Airways have reduced capacity by 700,000 and 450,000 seats, respectively.
For flights that remain in service, ticket prices have continued to rise, and in many cases, fares are far higher than before the war.
Air fares continue to rise
Data from travel-focused search website KAYAK showed that the average international airfare from the US to all destinations stood at US$1,101, or about THB35,525, in the final week of April, up 16% from the same period a year earlier.
Domestic fares in the US have risen more sharply, by about 24% year on year.
The founder of Norway-based Winair AS estimated that fares on some Europe-Asia routes had risen by as much as fivefold because of strong demand and limited capacity, not higher energy prices.
He said it would not be surprising if Gulf carriers soon offered very attractive fares between Europe and Asia via Gulf hubs.
However, Al Jazeera said the trend had not yet significantly reduced consumer demand.
Travel demand has not fallen sharply
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), international passenger demand fell by only 0.6% worldwide in March from a year earlier, while overall demand rose by more than 2% because domestic markets remained strong in several countries.
Higher airfares have also encouraged passengers to book earlier because of concerns that fares may rise further.
Demand for travel to some Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, has also increased because ticket prices have not yet risen sharply.
However, analysts said travellers’ willingness to accept higher travel costs could begin to change if supply remains limited.
Europe and Asia face a jet fuel shortage risk
Willie Walsh, director general of IATA, warned last week that some countries in Europe and Asia could face jet fuel shortages in the next few weeks.
Gary Bowerman, director of travel marketing company Check-in Asia, said the global aviation industry could face a difficult few months ahead.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened the next day, the severe structural damage caused by the war to energy infrastructure and supplies from the Persian Gulf could affect the global aviation industry for months, particularly in Europe and Asia, and possibly longer, he said.
However, Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, said the outlook for air travel remained unclear.
Although fuel prices have surged, costs remain lower than during the 2007-2008 peak at the time of the global financial crisis, while it is still unclear when the war will end.
Harteveldt expected that it could take months, or even a year, for jet fuel prices to return to normal levels, although they might not return to pre-war levels.
