FRIDAY, March 29, 2024
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Are Thai-US relations warming up slowly?

Are Thai-US relations warming up slowly?

After he left Bangkok on April 8 2014, Daniel R Russel, US Assistant State Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was confident Thailand would be able to handle domestic political turmoil in the foreseeable future - anything short of a military cou

 


During his brief visit, he spoke at length with Thai PBS about Washington’s hopes of seeing the region’s oldest democratic ally play an active role in the US rebalancing policy. He reiterated that the US had very high expectations for a Thai democratic future through the electoral process. From his interview, it was clear that elections were a prerequisite for a democratic Thailand and its ability to continue as a trusted US ally. After his trip, he filed a report to John Kerry, US Secretary of State. 
However, 44 days later on  May 22, out of the blue, the Thai military seized power. Washington was caught by surprise as there was no indication whatsoever that the coup was imminent. That helped explain why Kerry’s reaction was pretty strong and still reverberates in the hearts and minds of the Thai power- wielders even today. Since then, Thai-US relations quickly went downhill without any prospect of amelioration.
Now, after 259 days of no contact at the ministerial level, the frozen Thai-US relations are poised to warm up. Russel is returning to Bangkok for a two-day visit on January 26 “to do whatever he can to improve Thai-US relations,” in the words of an official overseeing the scheduled visit. As the most senior US official to date to visit and make contact with the Thai government – still not fully accepted by Washington – what he says and does will be closely scrutinised. Apart from the US, the EU has not normalised ties with Thailand pending a future election. Other democracies, Australia and New Zealand, are more pro-active in engaging Thailand.
Russel’s visit, which also takes him to Malaysia and Cambodia, comes at the most pivotal time ahead of the two important Thai-US events during the first half of this year. First will be the annual Cobra Gold – the region’s largest military exercise, jointly hosted by Thailand and the US for the past three decades. The two-week annual exercise will kick off on February 10 in Nakorn Nayoke, despite earlier calls to move the event elsewhere after the coup.
This time the exercise will be on a smaller scale, focusing on a disaster and humanitarian relief operation. At least 10,000 Thai, American and international troops will be participating. Unlike previous years, the publicity will be low profile and limited.
It is interesting to note that after the coup, a new sense of empathy toward the US is emerging among Thai security officials who are no longer preoccupied with the US and its strategic postures. Previously, they would pivot their responses on US positions and adjust accordingly to ensure a well-balanced foreign policy.
Now, Thailand has become more versatile in exploring new security relations. To use the phrases popularised by former US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Thailand is currently moving from the ‘known-knowns’ to the ‘known-unknowns’ in its relations with major powers. In the past several months, in absence of US engagement, Thailand has expanded defense dialogues and programmes with China, Russia and Vietnam.
At the East Asia Summit in Nay Pyi Taw in October, Russia worked hard to move closer towards Asean amid the Western sanctions. Prime Minister Dimitri Medvedev established a good rapport with his Thai counterpart, General Prayut, which soon could lead to the PM’s official visit to Moscow. Russia has also moved assertively to strengthen ties with Thailand with new initiatives promoting bilateral trade, investment, energy security, transfer of high-tech knowledge, widening security cooperation and arms procurements.
Russia has already offered to barter its exports for Thai agricultural products and using currencies – other than  US dollar – that both sides have agreed upon. Thailand, as a key non-Nato ally, has been frustrated with its slow and complicated arms procurements from the US.
As such, the forthcoming Cobra Gold will also serve as a weather vane of the future Thai-US security cooperation within the context of the US rebalancing policy.
Next on the list would be Thailand’s status in the US State Department’s Trafficking in Persons Report. Last year, the  country was downgraded from the Tier 2 Watch-list to Tier 3 because it failed to protect migrant workers and crack down on human trafficking. At the time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was confident the US would upgrade the country’s status to Tier 2 as numerous measures were created and prosecution of criminal cases against migrant workers and traffickers were at an all-time high. Some officials still believed that without the coup, Thailand would receive positive reviews.
Despite the downgrade, US President Barack Obama has not imposed any sanctions against Thailand. Ahead of the report’s release last June, leading human rights organisations around the world urged Obama to impose sanctions to punish Thailand’s poor human rights record. But he was reluctant to do so giving the country’s second chance.
Currently, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha’s creditability is on the line, hinging on a dramatic improvement in anti-human illegal activities to prevent future US sanctions. He has instructed all concerned agencies to improve the human rights situation as pointed out by the TIP report last year. Thailand will submit the progress report by the end of this month. In a recent intra-agency meeting which he chaired, Prayut pointedly threatened to reshuffle senior officials, individual or collectively, who failed to make tangible progress.
Beyond these two events, the continued imposition of martial law and a delayed election could be spoilers in any effort to improve bilateral ties. If that is the prevailing scenario, it means  Thai-US relations are not as seriously important as their officials like to portray.

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