Thai diplomacy faces uphill tasks

Earlier, senior Thai officials in the Prime Minister’s Office wanted to suspend any contact with the US embassy as a retaliation – but subsequently declined following clarification from the Americans. Both the US and EU have been pressing Thailand for an early poll by the end of this year. 

However, the countries in East Asia and Asean have expressed understanding of the difficult tasks the current government must overcome before a general election can be slated. China’s diplomatic response towards the Prayut government was warm and quickly rewarded. The Thai-Chinese leaders have also established a strong personal rapport that even the 182-year US-Thai relationship could not equal.  US allies Japan and South Korea, have decided to conduct business transactions with the government at the highest levels despite their initial criticism of military adventurism. Prayut is scheduled to visit Japan early in February. This is the first time that Thailand’s foreign policy has zeroed in on East Asia exclusively. 

Despite diplomatic contacts remaining at the middle level with Western countries, there has been no policy action. For instance, the free-trade agreement between Thailand and the EU, which was almost achieved before the coup, has been completely halted. Any effort to jumpstart negotiations again would be extremely difficult in the absence of an electoral date. 

Thai-US relations are frozen at the present with little prospect of improvement this year. The US embassy in Bangkok will not have an ambassador in place any time soon due to delay in Congress approving such positions. The envoy’s absence further reinforces the insignificance of Thai-US bilateral ties.

The planned annual military exercise, Cobra Gold, scheduled in early February could be affected. Last year, the Pentagon said the multinational exercise would be small and focusing on disaster management and humanitarian assistance. More than Thai and US officials would like to admit, the exercise this year also serves as a face-serving device not to disrupt the region’s largest military exercise. Washington has cut off military aid to Bangkok. 

This will be the international environment the Thai government has to contend with and work on until the lifting of martial law and the scheduled election for the next 14-15 months. It will be restrictive with small room for diplomatic manoeuvres. In October, Thailand failed miserably to get sufficient votes to win its second bid for a seat on the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. That was a big loss of face. Before the May 22 coup, Bangkok was confident of winning with overwhelming votes. As it turned out, six Western friends changed their minds and enabled Qatar to win.

The campaign to compete for a non-permanent seat in the UN Security Council for 2017-18 has continued unabated. Thailand will be pitched against the oil-rich Kazakhstan. Without the military power seizure or human rights violations and gagging of media freedoms, as they are today, Bangkok has a very good chance of winning.

The National Council for Peace and Order and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha do not seem to appreciate the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ ongoing efforts. After all, there have not been dramatic improvements in the civil rights situation in Thailand – a necessary step to create a favourable atmosphere to win international sympathy and support.  Worse, Foreign Minister General Tanasak Patimapragorn is nowhere to be seen except in international meetings. He has not yet spoken to the press about what he plans to do and where his country is heading. His assistant, Don Pramudwinai has been equally mute.  

There will also be a new team of senior officials at the ministry including a permanent secretary and his four deputies along with the new chiefs of the Asean and East Asia departments. Depending on how well they work together, it is doubtful whether Thai policy will be as engaging and proactive as before.  One indicator could be the 2nd Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD), which Thailand will host on March 8-12, a commitment made by the Yingluck government in 2013. The ACD was set up by her brother Thaksin in 2002. The first summit was held in Kuwait in the same year. Thailand hopes to use the summit to highlight its foreign policy and rally ACD members to support Thailand’s UN candidacy. 

In retrospect, it is understandable why Tanasak, who speaks English and has more diplomatic exposure, did not want to outshine his senior colleague, Prayut. So, it is better for him to remain with a low-key image – reducing, in effect, the country’s diplomatic profile. Instead of serving as foreign minister, he has morphed into an aide-de-camp, much like other senior military officials appointed to head various ministries. 

If this trend continues, the perception of Thailand in the regional and international arena will be greatly diminished.

Prayut’s pledges to integrate Thailand smoothly into the Asean Community will come short because the government and the ministry are not in sync with one another. And that goes for other international schemes too.