Suu Kyi's treatment in China signals big change in Myanmar

There will be a three-month gap between the polls and the vote for a new president, during which much political bargaining will take place.

A new government will be in place only in April next year. Myanmar is thus entering a new phase of uncertainty and transition.

What happens during this period is important to China as it has major and strategic investment interests in its Southeast Asian neighbour, from oil pipelines to hydroelectric projects.

Just recently, a top official from the Chinese firm CPI Yunnan International Power Investment (CPIYN) spoke openly about looking forward to a change of government in Myanmar, saying that a new one would “appreciate” the China-led Myitsone dam project on the Irrawaddy river, which was suspended in 2011 by president Thein Sein in response to widely negative public opinion on the project.

For its part, Myanmar needs to manage with care its relations with its giant neighbour.

For both China and Suu Kyi – who, sources say, had made meeting China’s topmost leadership a condition of the trip – it is pragmatic to build bridges.

The opposition leader’s National League for Democracy (NLD) could well sweep the November polls, some pundits say. 

“Managing relations with China in a way that will best benefit the Myanmar people (and the Chinese people) will perhaps be the country’s single greatest challenge for the rest of the 21st century,” historian and author, Thant Myint-U, commented on his Facebook page in reference to Suu Kyi’s meeting with China’s president Xi Jinping last week.

Amid the uncertainty that lies ahead, China is hedging its bets.

There is a plethora of possibilities leading up to the elections, and after, in terms of political configurations.

But there remains a line in the sand for Suu Kyi: Under the current Constitution, and even after some proposed amendments are made, she cannot be president because she was married to a foreigner, and her children are foreign nationals.

Speculation is mounting on the upcoming elections but, thus far, even NLD figures are not making any predictions. 

Some expect the ruling, military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) to run the NLD close.

But some believe the NLD could win by a landslide, obliterating the USDP.

Especially in the latter scenario, Suu Kyi will be in a kingmaker position.

As her party does not have anyone else apart from her with the political weight and charisma for the role of president, she will most probably endorse someone from outside the party.

Analysts say the best option would be a reformist figure from the old regime.

There has long been speculation that she could support the current House speaker, former top general Shwe Mann. Both have developed a close working relationship. 

Suu Kyi herself may take the position of Speaker of the House, a powerful role in itself – especially given that the NLD is bound to have a large block of seats. 

But the political bargaining will be intense. The NLD is not the only game in town.

For one thing, the Federal Union Party, made up of former members of ethnic political parties, may well also win a good-sized block of seats in Parliament.

In a recent report, the International Crisis Group (ICG) wrote: “Two-thirds of (political) parties represent minority ethnic groups, both the seven major ones that have their own states, and smaller sub-minorities.”

Identity politics still holds sway in Myanmar at this early stage in its political transition and given the long-time marginalisation of its ethnic minorities, the independent, non-government ICG wrote. 

The only certainty is that the next government will inherit a range of thorny, unsettled issues.

They include the festering problem in Rakhine state of the persecuted minority Rohingya Muslims, which has led to a dissonance between Myanmar and the international community, including its fellow Asean states.

There are also controversial projects such as the Myitsone dam; long-running land disputes that pit the people against powerful old-regime cronies and new corporate investors; restive students; and hard-line nationalist monks.

Not least of all is the stalled peace process between the central government and over a dozen ethnic rebel armies that has had the army getting impatient.

Unless handled with political skill and wisdom, any of these issues could jeopardise the country’s stability and international relations.

Suu Kyi’s role may well be pivotal in all this, and Beijing wants her ear.