Thailand 4.0: Will it move the country out of its ‘lost decade’?

How that will come about is perhaps more important than what the ambitious plan is all about.

It’s strange but true that the main spokesman for Thailand 4.0 happens to be the deputy commerce minister – who seems to be the only person in the Cabinet who’s articulating the grand scheme frequently and clearly enough to convince the public that the nation is serious about leaving Thailand 3.0 behind.

Deputy Commerce Minister Suwit Maesinsri is a young academic with an impressive vision for how Thailand can climb out of the dark hole using a concrete and comprehensive road map to turn the country’s traditional economy into a “value-added economy” through innovation and out-of-the-box thinking.

Thailand 1.0 was based on traditional agriculture, before transitioning to the light industry of Thailand 2.0 and then the heavy industry of our current 3.0 status. The transition from 1 to 3 was a fairly conventional and smooth evolution that didn’t require a huge leap in development.

But, as most advocates suggest, the jump from Thailand 3.0 to 4.0 is a major challenge that can’t be achieved through traditional thinking or conventional action. It’s more than just a leap of faith. The mission also requires more than merely the conjoined efforts of government and the private sector. The act of building mountains to get out of the abyss cannot be accomplished without a general awakening that kicks off a major social movement.

The new mission, in simple terms, must aim at “less for more” rather than “more for less”.

In Suwit’s own terms, Thailand 4.0 can be realised only if three major changes happen, more or less simultaneously:

1. Change production of “commodities” into “innovative products”.

2. Transform industry-driven activities into those driven by technology, creativity and innovation.

3. Shift from the focus on making products, to providing services.

In practical terms, that means leaving behind traditional farming and embarking on a substantial phase of “smart farming”. If the scheme works as planned, farmers should no longer be the poorest segment of the population. If things go according to plan, farmers should become “entrepreneurs” instead of being subjected to the vagaries of changing weather and the dictates of merchants and middlemen.

The grand plan also calls for the upgrading of traditional small and medium-sized enterprises, whose fate has more or less been tied to government assistance, into “smart enterprises”. Better still, new SMEs should strive to become start-ups that branch out on their own into potential growth areas.

If Thailand is to escape al the traps that have stunted its growth for the past decade or so, the service industry must get a real shakeup. High-value services must replace traditional services.

At the same time, unskilled and low-skill labour will have to be injected with knowledge, expertise and high skills.

But how can such a tall order and high aims be achieved?

On paper, at least, the country has no choice but to create new engines of growth to make use of Thailand’s two unique benefits – bio-diversity and cultural diversity – which must somehow be transformed into competitive advantages.

Do we know where those “advantages” are to be sought? The Big Plan lists five technological and industrial groups that can help boost the country towards a new status: food, agriculture and bio-tech; health, wellness and bio-medical; smart devices, robotics and mechatronics; digital, Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence and embedded technology; and creative, cultural and high-value services.

The Prayut government has embraced this scheme to the hilt, hoping to cultivate new growth amid an economic slowdown that even under the most optimistic scenarios will produce a GDP growth rate of no more than 3 per cent this year.

But there is no shortcut to putting Thailand on the world’s innovation frontline. For one thing, time isn’t on the side of this government. Even if the project gets a good kick-start, the first results, if any, won’t be apparent for at least three to five years.

Unless the whole country is convinced a serious approach to Thailand 4.0 is necessary and is ready to make it a sustainable national goal, there is no guarantee that the new government after next year’s election will pick up where this administration leaves off.