Can Thailand’s new constitution lead to national reconciliation?

To obtain the trust of the international community, the junta must put all its efforts into realising a full transition to civilian rule.

A draft constitution compiled under military rule was endorsed by a majority of votes in a referendum on August 7. Since the constitution was designed to ensure the military’s political influence, the content of the new basic law is far from democratic.

Under the new constitution, the prime minister is not required to be an elected member of parliament, making it possible for military personnel to assume the post. As a provisional measure for the next five years, the junta will appoint members of the upper house, the Senate. The referendum vote also granted unelected senators the right to nominate a prime minister.

The new constitution also brings an electoral system that makes it difficult for any single party to win a majority in the lower house. Behind this move is the junta’s aim to block the return to power of the political force led by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose electoral strength lies in its support base of farmers and low-income earners in urban areas. The junta has pledged a fresh general election by the end of next year.

Thailand has been beset by a fierce confrontation for more than 10 years between forces loyal to Thaksin and those who oppose him. The anti-Thaksin forces mainly comprise groups with vested interests, including military personnel and bureaucrats.

Behind the approval of the new constitution is the public’s hope for a stable society, even under military rule, amid expectations that the new charter will be a step towards a return to civilian rule.

 

No legitimacy

However, it is clear that the military junta, which brushed democratic procedures aside and took power in a 2014 coup, has no legitimacy to rule in the long term.

It is worrisome that the junta is clamping down on free speech and stifling opposing opinions with an iron fist.

The Thai leadership has repeatedly detained students opposing the new constitution, and politicians and reporters who have criticised its authority. It also prohibited campaigns seeking discussion of the pros and cons of the new constitution.

National reconciliation cannot be realised with this method of rule. In he wake of the referendum, a series of explosions hit popular tourist spots in the South of the country. The junta suspects that opponents of the new constitution were involved in the bombings.

Concern is now rising that continued uncertainty in the political situation will affect the economy, curbing foreign investment and profits from tourism. Thailand is an important production base for Japanese companies, especially automobile manufacturers.

Meanwhile, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is being shaken by territorial disputes with giant neighbour China in the South China Sea. The stability of Thailand – a de facto leader in the region – is vital for Asean unity.

In response to the referendum, interim Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha issued a statement that said he would employ every possible means to eliminate public concern over the country’s future. His biggest challenge now is making good on his vow to bring a dangerously divided society back together.