Washington needs to shed light on its intentions before proceeding with any campaign to halt North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Otherwise, efforts by the international community to bring Pyongyang to the negotiating table will be rendered untenable.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stepped back on Friday from his earlier offer of “unconditional talks” with North Korea, which might have opened a channel for it to engage with the world. His offer survived only a few days before being taken back at a United Nations special ministerial meeting.
In the meantime, US Special Representative for North Korea Policy Joseph Yun was just leaving Bangkok after a visit during which he discussed with Thai leaders various means to denuclearise the Korean Peninsula, as he’d also done in Japan.
Washington, the UN and the world community are desperate to find ways to control Pyongyang’s behaviour amid continuing tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles, the latest of which, launched on November 29, showed the capability of striking anywhere in the US mainland.
Yun’s Asia tour last week delivered a message to Pyongyang – that the US has many allies in the region willing to help bring it to talks, although by all accounts Yun did not pressure those allies to comply with American aims. He behaved as diplomats should, even with the Donald Trump administration offering no clear signal on how to deal with North Korea. The White House has been unwaveringly hawkish, while the State Department and Pentagon appear more interested in a negotiated resolution.
America’s Asian allies and the international community prefer orchestrated pressure on Pyongyang in the form of further sanctions. No one wants to see military force come into play. But the confusing signals from Washington are having a counterproductive effect. Kim Jong-un is seeing disunity, even within the US administrative, and he is now armed with sophisticated weaponry, ready to strike out if threatened. He is determined to add his country to the roster of nuclear-armed nations, if only for protection.
The more advanced Pyongyang becomes in this area, the more comprehensive the strategy to deal with it has to be. UN Security Council resolutions alone will not curb its belligerence, and it has withstood sanctions for years.
Thailand generally has been supportive of international efforts to pressure Pyongyang. During the first nine months of 2017, its trade with North Korea amounted to US$1.61 million (Bt52 million), which represented a 94-per-cent drop from the same period in 2016. No Thai company maintains investments in North Korea any longer.
Much the same can be said of many other countries, and yet the situation hasn’t changed. North Korea continues to develop its nuclear and missile capabilities. Trump and Kim keep beating their war drums.
What the Americans need to do next is ask their allies to synchronise strategies. It needs a single, effective and comprehensive plan to deal with Pyongyang. As Yun’s shuttle diplomacy proceeds, Trump, Tillerson and Defence Secretary James Mattis should coordinate their stances and give the world a clear picture of the direction they want to follow.
The lack of a sound, unified strategy would waste the time and resources of any members of the international community who join the campaign to bring North Korea to talks. If the next move fails, countries in this region that North Korea deems to be enemies would be at grave risk.