FRIDAY, March 29, 2024
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Junta is running out of time

Junta is running out of time

The watch scandal and hidden survey results are darkening Prayut’s political future

The National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) has been compromised by its rector’s decision to not release the results of a recent public opinion survey regarding Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan’s possession of two dozen luxury watches. Doubt has been widespread about Prawit’s explanation that the watches – which he certainly couldn’t afford on his salary – were merely borrowed from wealthy friends. But we’d need a public opinion poll to gauge just how deep the doubt runs.
Concern is rife that the military-led government is increasingly trying to intimidate outspoken academics, a list now including Arnond Sakworawich, who conducted the wristwatch survey for Nida. The ruling junta will have to act decisively to prevent the untimely scandal over the timepieces from dashing Prayut Chan-o-cha’s chances of staying on as prime minister after the next election. The scandal has undermined the junta’s key rationale for staging the May 2014 coup – to stop corruption in government – and threatens to further tarnish its legacy. 
Prayut has insisted that the government did not block Nida from publishing the poll results, and that may be true. But it does not alter the fact that, because of military rule, Nida and other major polling institutes – Suan Dusit and Bangkok Poll – have been censoring their own work, thus suffering an erosion of credibility. The latest incident has seen Arnond, Nida’s poll director, step down in protest.
It was Nida’s rector, Pradit Wanarat, who made the call not to publish the survey findings, arguing that doing so could in itself influence public opinion on the issue before the National Anti-Corruption Commission completes its inquiry into the matter. Pradit, it should be noted, is also a member of the junta-appointed National Legislative Assembly. 
Prayut has meanwhile revived his usual defence, saying challenges to his administration’s credibility and integrity could signify a threat to national stability. “What does [Arnond’s resignation] have to do with me?” he asked reporters. “I just saw the news on social media. And he said he hadn’t been forced out or anything. People say whatever they want and the media just amplifies it, so the country will never be at peace.” Perhaps if the junta chief stopped equating national stability with his personal political stability, Thailand would feel more at peace. 
Survey results are inherently neutral, but they’ll always leave someone feeling uncomfortable – whoever is shown to be in the minority. Do we then withhold the results to avoid offending the minority? 
Questions of freedom of thought aside, the junta must now address this latest crisis of confidence. Prayut will have to reconsider his pledge to keep Prawit in the Cabinet. Prawit was the architecture of the 2014 coup and remains Prayut’s direct link to 
the Army, whose support the retired general will need if he’s to serve as a full-fledged politician.
For now, Prayut is sticking to his principles, closing ranks and defending Prawit, as if demonstrating some sort of military code of honour. There are, however, greater principles at stake. Running a government and leading a country is very different from running the military. This latest scandal represents another moment of truth for the junta chief and his administration. He has yet to pass the test. 
Perhaps it would be best if he abandoned ambitions for the future and focused on the now – restoring honour and integrity to the junta before leaving politics for good. 

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