FRIDAY, March 29, 2024
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Supporting cast may determine post-election course

Supporting cast may determine post-election course

With the exceptions of Prayut Chan-o-cha, the pro-military camp, and the whole Pheu Thai Party, don’t commit yourself to loving or hating anyone in Thai politics. At least not yet.

Why? Because there is no way of telling what is going to happen after the general election.
Ideology is mostly hype in Thailand, something the big stakeholders use as a smokescreen to up their bargaining power while never actually believing in what they preach.
But while the top predators may be abusing ideology, those in the middle know exactly what the big beasts want and are ready to take advantage.
Which is why we will see plenty of nasty horse-trading and switching of alliances after the election. The situation may be worse than in previous election cycles, when certain factions dangled their valuable support to employ arm-twisting tactics against the big guys.
New constitutional rules have rejuvenated previously powerless politicians. One rule in particular empowers those who can guarantee their party wins substantial votes even when they don’t win the actual constituency contests.
The rule states that the total votes cast in all constituencies will be used to help calculate the number of seats each party wins. This total nationwide vote will be used to top up constituency gains. 
For example, if the calculation shows that Pheu Thai is entitled to 200 seats and the party has already won 190 constituency seats, it will get an additional 10 seats.
This rule means smaller parties may still have a large contingent of MPs despite losing all their constituency battles, particularly if they are only narrowly beaten. In previous elections, it was a case of winner takes all and loser takes nothing.  
Not anymore. You can lose every constituency vote narrowly and still win seats in Parliament.
Medium-sized parties with popular election candidates stand to benefit from the rule. And the benefits will likely be exploited to the maximum when the big players try to form a coalition government after the election.
The important numbers are as follows: The House of Representatives has 500 members and the Senate has 250. A simple majority – 376 – is the minimum number required to elect someone prime minister. This is the case in “normal circumstances”, where the two chambers elect the prime minister from among nominees endorsed by parties before the election.
If the two chambers cannot elect a PM from the list of nominees, an outsider can become the prime minister – if he or she can gain the support of 500 MPs and senators.
In either circumstance, it is obvious that both Prayut and Pheu Thai will need the support of medium-sized parties. Unless, that is, Pheu Thai sweeps the election by winning a minimum of 376 seats. 
Prayut, meanwhile, will need another 176 votes on top of the 250 appointed senators who are expected to back him. Some of those votes will come from the Palang Pracharat Party, but nowhere near enough. 
A bunch of politicians will be able to play kingmaker after the election. A bidding war like we have never seen before may be on the cards: Expect jaw-dropping U-turns and the shattering of alliances. But along with the unexpected and unprecedented, we are also guaranteed a return to a familiar dreaded spectre in Thai politics.
One academic hit the nail on the head recently when he told a political forum that, after all the trouble – the violence, the fighting, the painful national divide – real democracy will emerge for about four seconds, the time it takes to mark the ballot. Then we will be back in the hands of the 500 elected representatives plus 250 appointed lawmakers. And what they do won’t necessarily be democratic or serve the people’s best interests.
But whether you are for or against those “four seconds”, don’t choose to love or hate any bit players just yet. They may choose to “advocate” for your ideology or they may opt to pick “the other side”. They will try to convince you with good reasons, although you know where they are coming from.
Democracy is slippery. There were times when we moaned about the power of lesser players to “hold the country hostage”, insisting the prime minister should be able to ignore them and focus on working for the national interest. When the PM was able to do just that, the term “parliamentary dictatorship” emerged.
The four seconds are just a very small step. True democracy emerges when the prime minister and both chambers come up with a Cabinet that works, that cares truly about the people’s needs, that is not corrupt and that is not obsessed with doing popular things for popularity’s sake.
The supporting cast can help make that happen. Or they can drag us back to square one and blame everything but themselves when that happens.

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