Middle East war threatens Thai tourism downturn as impact spreads to Europe

The ongoing war in the Middle East, as of Wednesday (March 11), is no longer affecting only tourists from the region itself, but is primarily hitting long-haul aviation, especially routes that require transit through the Middle East.

The main airlines affected are Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways and Gulf Air.

These carriers normally transport about one-third of the entire Europe-Asia passenger market, making the impact on Thailand’s long-haul tourism market unavoidable.

Since the conflict began, more than 37,000 flights in the Middle East region have been cancelled.

For Thailand, around 134 flights have been affected, while around 59 flights between Thailand and the Middle East have been cancelled, clearly affecting Thailand’s tourism sector this March.

Statistics show that from March 1-9, 2026, more than 741,063 foreign tourists visited Thailand, down 5.69%.

In particular, long-haul tourists from four regions — Europe, America, the Middle East and Africa — totalled 295,745, down by 48,071, or 13.98%, from the same period last year.

Arrivals from the Middle East stood at 702, down 76.51%, or 2,286 fewer than in the same period last year.

European arrivals totalled 249,597, down 41,957, or 14.39% year on year.

Arrivals from the United States stood at 43,297, down 3,447, or 7.37% from the same period last year, while arrivals from Africa totalled 2,149, down 381, or 15.06% year on year.

However, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports has assessed the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on Thailand’s tourism industry.

Its assessment found that the Middle Eastern market, while directly affected by airspace closures in many countries around the Arabian Gulf, would be the hardest hit.

But as this is the Ramadan period, travel is already limited, and Middle Eastern visitors account for only 2%, or about 800,000 a year, of Thailand’s total tourist market, meaning replacement markets can be found.

The greater concern is the impact on long-haul markets, particularly European tourists, which is a market generating as many as 8 million visitors a year.

There are already signs of a decline in European arrivals because around one-third of European tourists need to travel through Middle Eastern airspace or hubs.

Worst-case assessment: if the disruption lasts 8 weeks, tourist losses could approach 600,000

In response to the impact, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, together with the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), has assessed three scenarios.

Best case: if the situation ends within 3 weeks

The impact would be limited to tourists from the Middle East and European tourists who need to transit in the Middle East, because airlines have suspended services on those routes.

It would not affect short-haul markets or long-haul markets flying direct to Thailand.

Even so, tourist numbers would fall by 210,973, made up of 188,129 from Europe and 22,844 from the Middle East, with revenue losses of THB13.167 billion.

Base case: if the airspace closure lasts 4 weeks

Although airlines may be able to adjust some routes or flight schedules during the final week, and oil prices may not yet rise significantly, the impact would intensify.

Tourist numbers are projected to decline by 334,084, comprising 265,645 from Europe and 68,439 from the Middle East, causing tourism revenue to fall by THB21.531 billion.

Most worrying is the worst-case scenario: if the situation drags on for as long as 8 weeks

Airlines on European routes would have to revise routes and summer schedules between March 30 and October 2026, causing fares to rise in line with higher oil costs.

If the situation drags on for more than 60 days, beyond the oil reserve period, it would become a factor pushing global crude prices sharply higher, affecting ticket prices across all routes as well as production and logistics costs in many countries.

Together with currency volatility, the impact would spread to tourists in every market, even if short-haul markets were less affected than long-haul ones.

Thailand could lose as many as 595,874 tourists in total.

In addition to Europe and the Middle East, another 19,646 tourists from other regions would also be affected, resulting in a massive tourism revenue loss of THB40.972 billion.

TAT expects foreign arrivals to Thailand this year to fall by 2% to 25%

TAT has also assessed the full-year 2026 outlook for tourist arrivals based on the impact.

Best case: quick resolution within 2-4 weeks

Foreign arrivals to Thailand are expected to come in at 35-36 million, down 2%, as long-haul markets recover quickly, the Chinese market grows strongly, and some travel demand shifts to Thailand.

Base case: prolonged for 1-3 months

Foreign arrivals are expected to come in at 30-31 million, down 18%, because recovery in long-haul markets would be relatively slow and the baht would remain volatile.

This would be down from TAT’s target of 36.7 million visitors this year, which would have represented 11% growth.

Worst case: prolonged for more than 3 months

Foreign arrivals are expected to come in at 27-29 million, down 25%, due to the impact on Middle Eastern and European markets that rely on Arabian Gulf hubs, higher airline fuel costs — with fuel accounting for 25% of airline costs — and higher airfares.

Upper-middle and high-end travellers in Asia would also become more cautious about spending, affecting plans to visit Thailand.

TAT turns crisis into opportunity, adjusts strategy to find replacement markets

Miss Chiravadee Khunsub, Deputy Governor for International Marketing Europe, America, Middle East and Africa at the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), told Thansettakij that the contraction in long-haul tourist markets was regrettable because the segment had been showing very strong momentum.

Last year, long-haul arrivals exceeded 10 million, with Europe alone accounting for 8 million.

However, although the figures are now falling, forward bookings have not seen a large number of cancellations.

Instead, travellers are postponing trips, especially into the second and third quarters, while waiting to see how the situation develops.

Even so, TAT still hopes that if the situation eases within 2-4 weeks, arrivals to Thailand may decline by around 3-5% over the next 6 months, or by around 300,000-500,000 tourists from Europe and the Middle East.

What matters most at this point is proactive care for tourists and swift assistance for stranded travellers, which should be treated as a top priority.

For tourism strategy over the next 6 months, the focus will be on maintaining air connectivity, with seat capacity taking priority over marketing alone.

TAT has adjusted its marketing plan to be more flexible, scaling back or postponing some campaigns that do not fit the current situation, and shifting focus to the areas that genuinely interest tourists, so that budgets are not spent to no purpose.

Support for European carriers and Asian carriers to compensate for transit through the Middle East should follow a corridor-based approach rather than relying solely on Middle Eastern airlines.

Transit through Asian aviation hubs such as Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Tokyo, South Korea and Taiwan would be safer under current conditions.

TAT, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, CAAT and AOT will all be key to turning the crisis into an opportunity.

If Thailand can manage infrastructure effectively and build confidence in safety and goodwill towards the region, tourism will recover quickly as soon as the situation eases.

In addition, TAT will prioritise and divide the affected markets into two groups: 1. markets that require recovery, namely the Gulf countries; and 2. markets that rely on Middle Eastern aviation hubs, namely Eastern Europe, Spain and Italy.

As for replacement markets, TAT will focus on short-haul markets to offset lost revenue.

The markets with the highest potential at present are China, India, Japan, Australia and ASEAN countries, all of which are beginning to show good signs of recovery.

TAT will also target high-spending segments such as wellness, long-stay, digital nomad and quality leisure, with an emphasis on increasing spending per person per trip.

It is also important to shape the next phase of communications to reassure tourists, such as confirming that airports across Thailand remain open as usual, that there are sufficient alternative flights, and that there is enough hotel accommodation in both major and secondary tourist cities, the TAT deputy governor said in conclusion.

Oil price crisis adds to pressure on Thai tourism

Yuthasak Supasorn, Chairman of the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand and former TAT Governor, said that the oil price crisis and Thailand’s tourism industry were now directly linked.

The surge in global oil prices was not just about petrol station prices, but a warning signal requiring serious preparation.

Three scenarios need close monitoring.

Case 1: oil at USD80-100 per barrel

The impact would be limited, and the industry could still grow.

Hotel and tour margins would begin to narrow.

Airlines would start adjusting fuel surcharges.

Long-haul tourists would delay bookings, but not cancel them.

Short-haul markets such as China and India, which rely on shorter flight routes, would still be able to travel normally.

Case 2: oil at USD100-120 per barrel

Foreign tourist arrivals in 2026 would face a high risk of falling by 8-12% for the full year as logistics costs rise by 20-30%.

Airlines would pass costs on to passengers.

Surging aviation costs would directly hit long-haul markets, with Europe and America at high risk of slowing.

SMEs in the tourism sector would face a liquidity crisis.

Restaurants, transfer services and small tour companies would struggle to absorb higher energy costs.

Their ability to raise prices for tourists would be limited because competition remains intense.

With public debt at nearly 68% of GDP, fiscal space is minimal, making tourism stimulus measures such as Rao Tiew Duay Kan harder to implement.

Case 3: oil above USD120 per barrel

Thailand’s tourism industry would risk contracting by 15-25% for the full year.

Flights would be reduced, while fares would become harder to afford.

Low-cost airlines might reduce or cancel routes.

The baht could weaken.

On one hand, that would make Thailand cheaper in the eyes of long-haul tourists from Europe and America.

On the other hand, it would sharply increase import and energy costs for Thai operators, eroding gains from foreign tourist spending through higher operating costs.

Economic stagnation would damage domestic purchasing power.

When prices rise, but the economy does not grow, while household debt remains high, Thai people would cut domestic travel budgets first, severely affecting tourism income in provincial destinations.