Property past its low point; second-hand homes lead, 2026 seen steady

Thailand’s housing market in 2025 was like a ship battling rough seas all year, only beginning to see a glimmer of light in the final quarter.

Data from the Real Estate Information Centre (REIC) show that in Q4 2025, the market started to recover quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) after short-term stimulus measures, or a “Quick Big Win”, including cuts to transfer and mortgage registration fees and relaxed loan-to-value (LTV) criteria.

The momentum immediately lifted nationwide ownership transfers.

Transfer transactions totalled 89,198 units, up 5.7% from the previous quarter.

Transfer value reached THB247.145 billion, up 9.3%. Meanwhile, new nationwide housing loans issued in Q4 totalled THB148.748 billion, up 1.3%.

This clearly signals that the market has passed its low point!

By asset type, low-rise home transfers came to 60,086 units, up 4.4%, with a value of THB174.469 billion, up 6.3%. Condominium transfers totalled 29,112 units, up 8.6%, with a value of THB72.677 billion, up as much as 17%.

The faster acceleration in condos reflects demand returning late in the year, especially among buyers who made quick decisions in response to fee incentives and lending conditions.

Second-hand homes “take the lead” as market structure shifts
The key point to watch is not only the recovery, but the “shift in market structure”.

In Q4, newly built homes accounted for just 38% of all transfers, down from a year earlier, while second-hand homes rose to 62%.

Looking at 2025 as a whole, nationwide transfers totalled 316,214 units, down 9.1%, with a total value of THB864.913 billion, down 11.8%. New-home transfers fell more sharply (-13.9%), while second-hand homes slipped only -6.2%.

This reflects more cautious consumer behaviour and a preference for more affordable assets, an adjustment in structure amid still-fragile purchasing power and high household debt.

Foreign demand still supports condos, but the price per unit declines
Another notable picture is overseas demand.

In Q4 2025, 3,888 condominium units were transferred to foreign buyers, up 9.3% from a year earlier.

For the full year, the figure was 14,899 units, up 2.2%. However, the total value for the year fell 10.7% to THB60.921 billion, reflecting a trend of a lower average price per unit.

This suggests the market is adjusting towards more mid-range pricing.

Chinese buyers remain the main group; although their volumes and value declined, Russian and Taiwanese buyers posted standout growth.

A more diversified foreign demand base could help improve the long-term resilience of Thailand’s condo market.

Property in 2026: a year of “stability”
REIC expects the market to remain broadly stable in 2026.

Nationwide transfers are forecast at 314,593 units, down slightly by 0.5%, with a value estimated at around THB858.453 billion, down 0.7%.

New lending is expected to be close to 2025 at about THB539 billion, under assumptions that the Thai economy grows 1.5–2.5%, interest rates trend lower, and the government continues debt-relief measures such as “Clear Debt, Move Forward” or “You Fight, We Help”.

2026 may not be a year of dramatic growth, but rather a year of “rebalancing”.

A turning point for Thailand’s property market
The takeaway from 2025 is contraction in both volume and value, but the final quarter proved that government measures still have the power to stimulate the market.

In 2026, demand, supply and credit conditions are likely to gradually adjust towards a new equilibrium.

The key questions are: as second-hand homes play a bigger role, how will developers adjust their strategies? And with purchasing power not yet fully back, can the market grow on a base of “quality” rather than “quantity”? In a fragile economy, Thailand’s housing market may not be entering a major upcycle, but moving into a new era where sustainability matters more than overheating.