Gold rallies after US–Israel strikes on Iran trigger safe-haven rush
Gold prices jumped as the outbreak of war in the Middle East jolted global markets and pushed investors towards traditional safe-haven assets.
Bullion rose by more than 2% to about US$5,390 an ounce in early trade, after gaining more than 3% the previous week as American troops amassed in the region.
Fighting intensified over the weekend after the United States and Israel struck Iran, prompting Tehran to launch waves of missiles at targets across several countries.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was reported killed on the first day of the strikes.
In Thailand, the abrupt surge in spot prices, up by more than US$100 over the weekend and closing in on the US$5,300 level, triggered immediate disruption for local dealers.
Major gold traders, including Hua Seng Heng and YLG, temporarily suspended parts of their trading to cope with volatility that was difficult to manage.
The latest jump adds to a longer-running rally that has been underpinned by broader geopolitical strains and US President Donald Trump’s shake-up of international relations, as well as elevated central-bank buying and a broader shift away from sovereign bonds and currencies.
Even after a sharp retreat from a record above US$5,595 an ounce at the end of January, the metal is still up by about a quarter so far this year.
Gold also notched a seventh straight monthly gain in February, its longest run since 1973.
Before the war with Iran, Trump had already hardened his foreign-policy stance, including the January seizure of Venezuela’s then-president Nicolás Maduro by US troops and threats by his administration to annex Greenland.
Market watchers said Monday’s move was consistent with an early rush into safety as the regional outlook worsened.
Ahmad Assiri, a strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd., described the rise as an early sign of investors seeking safe-haven assets amid escalating uncertainty.
The United States and Israel launched strikes across Iran on Saturday, while urging the public to rise against the Islamic regime.
Iran’s retaliation hit targets in Israel and also struck American bases and sites in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain.
Oil posted its biggest gain in four years as the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz threw the global crude market into turmoil, while the dollar also advanced.
Hong Hao, chief investment officer of Lotus Asset Management Ltd., said precious metals, oil and commodities were climbing even as the dollar rebounded, arguing it showed hard assets were acting as “true hard currency” in extraordinary conditions.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was up 0.4% early Monday.
Spot gold was up 1.9% at US$5,380.91 an ounce as of 7.40am in Singapore. Silver rose 2.4% to US$96.04, while platinum and palladium also gained.
Kritcharat Hirunyasiri, chairman of MTS Gold (Mae Thong Suk), said the firm resumed service on March 1, 2026, but capped transactions at no more than five baht per order to manage risk.
He cited an opening weekend price of THB79,000 to sell and THB77,600 to buy, per baht of gold.
He warned that if the United States failed to end its operation within the next three days, the conflict could widen and drag on, intensifying “de-dollarisation” as the dollar becomes a party to the dispute and pushing flows into gold.
He also warned that any closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil above US$100 a barrel, raising inflation at a time when central banks could struggle to raise rates, conditions he said would further support gold.
Based on the war risk, Mae Thong Suk revised its outlook, saying prolonged fighting could lift global gold to US$7,000 an ounce and push domestic bullion above THB100,000 per baht of gold, around 10% above its prior “no-war” target.
Kritcharat added that the latest turmoil reinforced gold’s role as the most stable asset in a disorderly world, while Bitcoin declined during the crisis.
For strategy, he recommended buying on dips, while acknowledging that pullbacks can be limited during wartime, and flagged support for global gold at US$4,950–US$5,050 an ounce and for Thai gold at THB72,000.
He urged investors to avoid leverage, use only spare cash, and watch for fraudsters offering “too-cheap” gold.
He said gold could challenge the prior US$5,390 high again next week and warned Thai prices may not dip below THB70,000 anytime soon.
Bloomberg
