Inside the rumoured mega-deal to block the People's Party

The People's Party has vowed to establish a government of change after the 2027 general election while maintaining its push against the lese majeste law (Article 112) that saw its predecessor, Move Forward, dissolved by court order last week.

People's Party leaders have likely assessed the outcome of the 2023 election and realised that their bold policies, which no other party dared to propose, resonated with over 14 million voters. This strong ideological stance won the election with 36.23% of the vote and 151 seats in Parliament.

The party has retained this reformist focus, understanding that its supporters still back its cause.

However, despite carrying this reformist momentum, the People’s Party may not pose the same level of electoral threat as its predecessor.

At the 2023 election, rivals like Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharath, United Thai Nation, and the Democrats competed against each other in many areas, with overlapping voter bases that cut into each other's votes. This allowed Move Forward to maximise its success.

Now, after a year in power, the coalition partners seem to have learned their lesson: united they stand, divided they fall.
 
After Srettha Thavisin's defeat in today's Constitutional Court case, a new Cabinet may form, potentially including the Democrat Party and sidelining Palang Pracharath chief Prawit Wongsuwan.

Cabinet seats may go to Democrat leader Chalermchai Sri-on and his deputy Dech-it Khaothong, despite resistance from other coalition parties unwilling to give up ministerial quotas to the new coalition member.

Some within coalition leader Pheu Thai will resist the idea of allying with the Democrats, given their long-standing rivalry. However, the current situation may force them to cooperate, depending on the true power brokers in the government.

‘National unity government’

The idea of bringing the Democrats into the coalition, sometimes referred to as a “national unity government”, is not just about enjoying power today. It’s also about aligning behaviour ahead of the next major political event: the 2027 general election.

The next national poll may be fought under a new strategy of “negotiating before the election” – a departure from the past where parties fought first and negotiated government quotas later. Key government figures are already suggesting a formula to counter the People's Party's momentum: the coalition must stick together, adopt a local approach that clearly divides zones and areas, and avoid competing against each other.

In each province, powerful local figures will secure their territories, echoing the Provincial Administrative Organisation elections, where party affiliation is less important than alliances. This strategy might offer a way to counter the rising political heat.

The main goal is to isolate the People's Party and push it into opposition. But the challenge lies in finding someone with enough political clout to manage each party’s interests and ensure cooperation in avoiding electoral conflicts.

Conversely, if the proposed formula fails to contain the People's Party, there’s no clear backup plan in place.