Red vs Blue: Coalition rift puts Thaksin-Newin on the line

The escalating conflict between Thailand’s ruling Pheu Thai Party and its coalition partner, Bhumjaithai, is shaking the foundation of the governing alliance. What began as a quiet power struggle has morphed into a proxy war that has been raging on without pause, and now tensions are nearing a breaking point.

During the early days of forming a cross-ideological coalition government, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra—widely regarded as the spiritual leader of Pheu Thai—and Bhumjaithai’s de facto leader, Newin Chidchob, operated in separate spheres. However, following the Senate selection—largely influenced by the so-called 'blue camp'—Newin’s political clout grew significantly.

With newly appointed blue-aligned senators backing Bhumjaithai, the party's bargaining power surged. This emboldened faction has routinely challenged Pheu Thai, sensing that Thaksin is reluctant to dissolve Parliament—a card they believe he’s unwilling to play.

But tensions soared further when the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) submitted a report on alleged Senate election rigging to the Election Commission. The probe led to summonses for 53 senators, scheduled between May 19–21, intensifying the political standoff.

Amid this backdrop, speculation is rising that Bhumjaithai could vote down the 2026 national budget bill during a special parliamentary session from May 28–30. If the bill fails, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra may have no choice but to dissolve the House.

Crunching the Numbers: The Current Power Landscape

The current House has 494 seats. A simple majority of 247 votes is required to pass legislation.

The ruling coalition currently commands 324 seats:

Pheu Thai – 142

Bhumjaithai – 69

United Thai Nation – 36

Klatham  – 26

Democrat – 25

Chartthaipattana – 10

Prachachat – 9

Chartpattana – 3

Thai Ruamphalang – 2

New Democracy – 1

Seri Ruam Thai – 1

The opposition bloc holds 170 seats:

People's – 143

Palang Pracharath – 19

Thai Sang Thai – 6

Fair  – 1

Progressive Thai – 1

While the ruling coalition remains numerically strong, the feud between its two largest parties—Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai—continues to strain unity.

Scenario 1: New Coalition Without Opposition Support

If the rift forces a split, one option is forming a new coalition without opposition parties. That would yield around 255 seats, just 8 above the 247-vote threshold. However, such a slim majority is risky, especially with internal divisions in parties like the Democrats, who may have as many as four swing votes. Removing Bhumjaithai without bringing in any "cobras" (defectors) from the opposition would be a long shot.

Scenario 2: New Coalition with Opposition Defectors

The more plausible scenario involves Pheu Thai pulling in elements from the opposition to shore up a new coalition. This could raise support to about 280 seats, including:

Pheu Thai – 142

United Thai Nation – 36

Klatham – 26

Democrat – 25

Chartthaipattana – 10

Prachachat – 9

Chartpattana – 3

Thai Ruamphalang – 2

New Democracy – 1

Seri Ruam Thai – 1

Thai Sang Thai – 6

Palang Pracharath – 19 

However, within Palang Pracharath’s 19 MPs, there may be internal fragmentation, with potential splinter groups emerging, particularly the 'Phetchabun team' led by Santi Promphat, which holds six seats, and the Kamphaeng Phet MPs under the influence of Warathep Ratanakorn, who controls two seats.

This would leave the opposition with 214 seats, comprised of:

People's – 143

Bhumjaithai – 69

Fair  – 1

Progressive Thai – 1

Such a realignment would stabilise the government, enabling Thaksin and Pheu Thai to push policies more effectively. The remaining opposition would lack the leverage to disrupt proceedings.

Can Bhumjaithai Exist Outside Government?

Still, Bhumjaithai, under Newin’s strategic leadership, was never designed to operate as an opposition party. Its political model relies heavily on wielding state power to sustain influence in regional constituencies.

Despite the deepening rift between the “red camp” (Pheu Thai) and the “blue camp” (Bhumjaithai), it remains to be seen whether Newin has a hidden ace to use as leverage against Thaksin.

Thaksin's High-Stakes Gamble

Thaksin, anticipating the threat, appears to have prepared a contingency strategy—hence the push to challenge Bhumjaithai over its Senate maneuvering.

For Thaksin, this is a zero-sum game. If he loses control of the government, conservative forces could seize the opportunity to target him. The battle lines are drawn, and what happens next will be nothing short of a political showdown—with the fate of two of Thailand’s most influential figures hanging in the balance.