China’s expanding nuclear arsenal
In addition to a significant expansion of its conventional military capabilities, China has been rapidly increasing both the size and sophistication of its nuclear forces, as noted by US military officials and arms control experts.
Gen Anthony Cotton, commander of the US Strategic Command, told Congress in March that China’s military build-up, aimed at being ready to seize Taiwan by 2027 under President Xi Jinping’s directive, is driving the development of nuclear weapons capable of being launched from land, air, and sea.
China’s 2023 national defence policy reaffirmed its long-standing commitment not to be the first to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances.
This "no first use" policy also includes assurances that China will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear-armed state.
In response to inquiries, China’s defence ministry stated, “A nuclear war cannot be won and must not be waged,” emphasising its adherence to a “nuclear strategy of self-defence” and a no-first-use stance.
However, according to the Pentagon’s annual report on Chinese military power, despite China’s official position, its strategy likely includes the possibility of first use if conventional attacks endanger the viability of its nuclear forces or command and control systems, or if the threat approaches that of a nuclear strike.
Beijing may also consider first use if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan significantly threatens the survival of the Communist regime, the Pentagon’s report noted.
China’s defence ministry rejected attempts to "exaggerate the so-called ‘Chinese nuclear threat,’” calling it an effort to defame China and mislead the international community.
China’s nuclear stockpile is expanding and modernising at a faster pace than any other nuclear power, with the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists estimating that China now possesses about 600 nuclear warheads.
The country is constructing around 350 new missile silos and additional bases for mobile launchers. While the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has approximately 712 land-based missile launchers, not all are designated for nuclear weapons. Of these, 462 launchers are capable of launching missiles that can reach the continental US.
While many of the PLA’s launchers are for shorter-range missiles targeting regional goals, the majority are not assigned for nuclear strikes, according to the Bulletin’s analysis.
The Pentagon predicts that by 2030, the PLA will have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads as it continues to build a larger arsenal that spans from low-yield precision strike missiles to intercontinental ballistic missiles with multi-megaton yields.
Reuters
