“Don’t Cry for Me, Argentina”
This is my first in a series of articles about lessons learned from the history of outcomes from economic policies in countries around the world, with a particular focus on Thailand.
I begin by examining the case of Argentina’s populism because it is considered one of the worst, if not the worst. This is especially relevant as Argentina inaugurated a new president, Javier Milei, on December 10. He campaigned against populism, going so far as to promise to abandon the national currency and adopt the US dollar instead.
This development highlights that the majority of people in Argentina today are willing to forgo a lot, even to the extent of losing sovereignty over their own currency. Perhaps Argentinians have experienced a long period of economic suffering and disaster? Yes, they have, going back as far as the 1960s.
In the early- to mid-1950s, Argentina was a leading nation in Latin America. It was so prosperous that when Thailand had a coup d’état in 1957, the junta sent General Chatichai Choonhavan, a member of the opposing military camp, as our Ambassador to the Latin nation. (This was a traditional soft practice of the military when competing for political power.)
In the mid-1950s, the Argentine president was Juan Peron, the husband of Eva, the figure behind the famous musical “Evita” with its popular song “Don’t Cry for Me, Argentina”.
President Peron was so popular with his populist policies that he was overthrown by the right-wing in 1955. He spent 18 years in exile before returning to the presidency in 1973.
His world record for the political exile of a country’s leader has yet to be broken.
Our former Prime Minister Thaksin was in political exile for 15 years, three years short of Juan Peron’s record. He could have broken that record if the political outcome of the March 2023 election were different.
Juan Peron’s ability to return as President was due to his transformation of populism into Peronism. The Peronists controlled the country’s economic policies for almost half a century.
During these years, Argentina frequently topped international news for economic problems, with 2023 marking the country with the highest inflation and public debt, both domestic and foreign.
It earned the position of being among the worst “serial debt defaulter” in the world.
The current President, Javier Milei, is known for his hairstyle more disorderly than the former UK prime minister, Boris Johnson. Milei was elected to lead his country out of disastrous Peronism. Whether he will succeed, only time will tell.
The story of Argentina confirms that in economics, nothing is free. Because resources are scarce, every benefit has a cost, whether short-term or long-term.
So, politicians should avoid overselling populism. They should avoid promising to over-spend state money to gain popularity.
The media should always analyse political promises along with economic policies, and speak out when they encounter what appears to be populism.
As for the public, they should restrain themselves from demanding and supporting populism.
Otherwise, we may one day hear a song titled “Don’t Cry for Me, Thailand”.
Dr.Narongchai Akrasanee
Senior Development Economist and Fomer Minister of Commerce and Energy
