Thailand in V-Shaped recovery, UBS says
UBS AG is bullish on the economy this year as the country draws on its internal strengths rather than external factors to recover from last year's devastating floods.
“Thailand is now in a V-shaped recovery after the floods with support from domestic demand. Thai exports to the rest of Asia should be relatively good. But the problem is the euro zone’s weak economic growth,” Paul Donovan, managing director for global economics, said yesterday.
Europe is expected to contract 0.7 per cent this year.
Because of its trade and financial exposure, Thailand will still be vulnerable to external shocks, he said.
UBS forecasts Thailand’s economic expansion at 4.5 per cent this year and 5.5 per cent next year.
In Asia and the United States, growth rates in gross domestic product are acceptable – 6.3 per cent in Asia and 2.3 per cent in the US. In China it is 8.5 per cent, he added.
James Woodward, managing director of UBS Securities (Thailand), said the company was positive on the Kingdom, given clean balance sheets, good dividend yields and growth.
“We are looking for a big rebound in the fourth quarter. Now, Thailand has relative political stability,” he said.
However, risks remain with politics and external factors, he said.
The brokerage targets the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s main index reaching 1,300 points and listed companies posting double-digit earnings growth this year.
