Government Stimulus Delivers 4X Sales Boost for Thai Restaurants as Sector Rebounds

 

Half-Half Plus programme channels spending directly to small operators, with provincial markets outpacing Bangkok recovery.

 

Thailand's restaurant sector has staged a notable recovery in late 2025, powered by the government's Half-Half Plus co-payment scheme which generated 4.2 times sales growth for participating restaurants nationwide, with some small operators seeing revenues surge tenfold.

 

LINE MAN Wongnai's latest data reveals on Thursday that the industry rebounded from its lowest point in Q2, when same-store sales plummeted 14%, to post positive growth of 5% in Q4 (October-November), marking a crucial turning point after a difficult first half characterised by weak consumer spending and elevated food costs.

 

"The first half of 2025 marked the lowest point for the restaurant sector, with sales per store dropping 14% in Q2," said Yod Chinsupakul, CEO of LINE MAN Wongnai. "But the market turned positive in the second half – up 1% in Q3 and 5% in Q4 – reflecting a broad recovery in consumer spending supported by Half-Half Plus."

 

 

 

Small Restaurants See Transformative Impact

The stimulus programme proved particularly effective at channelling spending to smaller operators, addressing concerns about economic support reaching grassroots businesses.

 

Restaurants earning less than 10,000 baht per month saw sales surge 5.9 times compared to pre-programme levels, whilst mid-sized establishments earning above that threshold saw sales double.
 

 

 

 

"This reflects a clear trickle-down impact, channelling spending directly to smaller operators," Yod noted during a press conference on Thursday.

 

Restaurant owners reported the programme's life-changing effect, with one operator stating, "Since Half-Half Plus started, we haven't had time to sit down. We're exceeding our daily targets – sales are up 8 times. It's genuinely saving our business."

 

LINE MAN emerged as the dominant platform for the scheme, with 65% of participating restaurants choosing to sell through the service.

 

The platform generated 63% of total Half-Half Plus delivery sales – the highest market share – whilst processing over 8 million orders within the first three weeks.

 

The programme also benefited delivery riders, whose average daily income rose 15-25% due to higher order volumes, demonstrating the multiplier effect of targeted economic stimulus.

 

 

 

Provincial Markets Lead Recovery

While Bangkok's restaurant scene continues to struggle, provincial markets have shown remarkable resilience. In Q4, sales per store in the provinces rose 7% year-on-year, compared to just 2% growth in the capital.

 

The Half-Half Plus impact was most dramatic in secondary cities. Top-performing provinces compared to pre-programme sales included Chanthaburi (9.4x growth), Nong Bua Lamphu (9.3x), Uttaradit (8.9x), Udon Thani (8x), and Chiang Rai (7x).

 

Bangkok's recovery remains patchy, with several hotspot zones still struggling.

 

The central business district (Sukhumvit-Silom-Sathorn) improved from -19% in Q2 to -1% in late 2025, whilst the Bantat Thong area remained the hardest hit at -21% despite recovering from -35% in Q2.

 

 

Restaurants in shopping malls showed the clearest rebound, rising from -21% in Q2 to +1% in October-November.

 

 

 

Value-First Mindset Dominates

Consumer behaviour in 2025 revealed a decisive shift towards value-conscious spending.

 

Restaurants with average bills under 500 baht proved most resilient, with sales dropping only 12% in Q2 before rebounding 5% by year's end.

 

Higher-priced establishments (above 500 baht) faced deeper pressure, falling 14% in Q2 and recovering to just 4% growth in Q4.

 

"Affordability is the trend in the Thai market right now," Yod explained. "Food that you sell must be affordable – accessible and within reach. This has become increasingly important for restaurants to succeed."

 

The data also showed Thai consumers used the subsidy to try premium items they might otherwise avoid. Top Half-Half Plus orders included salmon, premium durian, grilled prawns, steamed crab roe, and suckling pig, with the highest single bill reaching 1,700 baht.

 

 

 

Ongoing Challenges Despite Progress

Despite the recovery, the restaurant sector faces persistent challenges. Whilst new restaurant openings in the second half of 2025 remained stable at around 39,000 – similar to the previous year – the closure rate remained stubbornly high at 50% within the first year of operation.

 

Looking ahead to 2026, Yod acknowledged uncertainty about sustained momentum once government stimulus ends.

 

"Quarter 1 next year should benefit if there's a second phase of Half-Half Plus," he said. "But the remaining three quarters could be challenging. We haven't seen clear growth factors for the country yet, though tourism is showing some recovery."

 

When asked about potential future stimulus rounds, he emphasised the need for refined targeting: "One lesson learned is considering medium-sized restaurants that earn more than 1.8 million baht per year but aren't large chains. Should we unlock this segment? They pay taxes correctly, they're in the system, but they couldn't participate this time."

 

The company confirmed it would maintain its support measures, including special commission rates for restaurants and promotional offers for users, whilst acknowledging budget constraints for extended campaigns.

 

For LINE MAN Wongnai, the year-end results reinforce its role as a crucial platform connecting government programmes to consumers and effectively distributing income across Thailand's food ecosystem during a fragile economic period.

 

The company projects the food delivery market will grow approximately 15% year-on-year in 2026, with LINE MAN targeting 20% growth by expanding service coverage and enhancing its AI-powered features for both merchants and consumers.