Bitcoin Eyes Accumulation Zone as Global Tensions Ease

 

 

As US-Iran ceasefire hopes soothe oil markets, analysts suggest Bitcoin is nearing a key accumulation phase, supported by low institutional exposure.

 

 

The cryptocurrency market remains in a "fragile" state despite a recent cooling of geopolitical tensions, according to Merkle Capital, Thailand’s first regulated digital asset fund manager. 

 

Speaking at a specialist seminar titled “Deep Dive into the Q2/2026 Low: Has Bitcoin Bottomed Out?”, Investment consultant Woramet Chansen highlighted that while immediate global risks are receding, investors must maintain disciplined risk management.

 

 

 

Geopolitical Relief and Oil Dynamics

Market sentiment saw a sharp recovery following a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. 

 

A critical component of the deal—the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—triggered a rapid decline in oil prices, which fell by more than $20 within just 48 hours.

 

"The swift drop in energy costs reflects a significant short-term relief in the markets," Woramet noted. However, he cautioned that the situation remains precarious. 

 

While daily vessel traffic through the Strait has recovered to approximately 15 ships per day, lingering conflict in Israel poses a persistent risk of renewed volatility.

 

 

 

Beyond geopolitics, the focus is shifting back to traditional macroeconomic indicators.

 

With the US Federal Reserve signalling intentions to maintain interest rates at approximately 3%—with further cuts anticipated next year—the medium-to-long-term outlook for risk assets appears constructive.

 

 

 

Bitcoin Accumulation and Institutional Upside

Within the digital asset space, Bitcoin is showing signs of entering a strategic accumulation zone. Woramet observed: "We are seeing a concentration of buying interest near the $70,000 level, which represents a critical cost basis for various market participants. On-chain data suggests that long-term holders and institutional investors are continuing to build positions, underscoring robust fundamentals."

 

 

 

Merkle Capital’s analysis further highlighted the massive potential for institutional growth.

 

Currently, institutional allocation in Bitcoin stands at a mere 0.66% of total global assets, accounting for roughly 7% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalisation.

 

This suggests significant "upside" as institutional capital continues to permeate the sector.

 

 

A Word of Caution on Volatility

Despite the burgeoning optimism, the report warned that market liquidity remains thin. Low 'Open Interest' levels suggest that even moderate buy or sell orders could trigger outsized price swings.

 

Woramet concluded that while the market may have moved past its "sentimental bottom," the trajectory of the second quarter will be dictated by the interplay between global economic policy and the stability of international relations.