TAT to cut foreign arrival target below 37 million amid tourism slump

Teerasil Tapen, deputy governor for policy and planning, said there is a strong likelihood that the target will be revised down from the previously forecast 37.46 million visitors, with projected tourism revenue of 3.4 trillion baht.

He noted that the number of international tourists may fall to 35.54 million, roughly the same as last year. However, total tourism revenue this year is still expected to increase from the previous year’s 2.97 trillion baht.

The downward revision comes in light of a sharp drop in visitors from the Northeast Asian market between January and April, with an overall decrease of 20%, particularly a 30% drop in Chinese tourists. This decline has had a significant impact, resulting in a 0.2% year-on-year decrease in overall arrivals.

TAT statistics for 2024 indicated that Chinese tourists most frequently chose Thailand as their destination, followed by Japan and South Korea. However, in the first quarter of this year, more Chinese tourists opted for Japan, driven by the weaker yen and ease of travel. 

Vietnam has also gained popularity due to a shift in group tours away from Thailand, resulting in Thailand falling to third place among Chinese tourist destinations.

Teerasil attributed the shift to safety concerns surrounding Thailand’s image, citing incidents such as the kidnapping of Chinese nationals, international call centre scams, the repatriation of Uyghurs to China, bombings in the Su-ngai Kolok district of Narathiwat, and recent earthquakes.

He added that these issues have also shaken the confidence of tourists from Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea.

“In addition to the decline in Chinese visitors, we’re also seeing a drop in arrivals from Japan and South Korea,” he said.

“We’re closely monitoring these markets, as they are geographically close to China, which is currently pursuing a dual strategy—encouraging domestic tourism while also trying to attract more inbound visitors.” 

TAT has launched a strategic action plan this year to sustain growth in the Chinese market by improving Thailand’s safety image and restoring tourist confidence.

The agency also plans to stimulate group travel by supporting charter flights and incentive groups from secondary cities, while also attracting free independent travellers (FITs) through partnerships with online travel agencies (OTAs) and tour operators. The focus is on attracting families and millennial travellers.

Additionally, TAT is supporting initiatives to commemorate the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Thailand and China, Teerasil added.

He further explained that TAT is also looking to diversify its source markets by targeting quality, leisure, family and incentive travellers, with a particular emphasis on South Asia and select ASEAN countries where foreign arrivals during the first four months remained strongly positive—such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, India and Sri Lanka—as well as certain European countries.

TAT also aims to expand its high-value tourist segments, focusing on health and wellness, yachting, sports and digital nomads. These segments, including travellers from the Middle East, India and Europe.

TAT will implement a 360-degree communication strategy both online and offline channels, and will host a range of engaging events year-round, including festivals, music, sports and cultural activities.

Regarding domestic tourism, Teerasil said TAT will focus on distributing income to secondary cities, promoting weekday travel to ease congestion, and enhancing the country’s image.

One major initiative is the "Half-Price Travel Scheme," expected to run from June to either September or October 2025—covering the rainy season and school holidays. TAT has secured a budget of approximately 2 billion baht for the programme. 

Under this scheme, Thai travellers will receive better rates for weekday stays, with the government offering higher subsidies than for weekend travel, he explained.

The initial allocation will cover 600,000 entitlements, with stricter regulatory measures in place to prevent price inflation and fraud—issues that have affected similar schemes in the past.

Teerasil also highlighted key issues that could impact Thai tourism this year, including the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, tensions between India and Pakistan, the effects of US tariff policies, efforts to restore confidence in Thailand’s safety, and risks from natural disasters.