JSCCIB keeps Thailand's GDP growth forecast at 2.2%, urges government to reduce regulations and stimulate SMEs
The JSCCIB maintains Thailand’s 2025 GDP growth forecast at 2.2%, urging the government to ease regulations and boost SMEs to support economic recovery.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has maintained its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Thailand at 2.2%, despite global economic recovery signals. The committee highlighted the impact of low-value exports, such as gold, and imports rising by 10.2%, which are affecting the country’s trade balance. While inflation is expected to remain low, core inflation rose slightly to 0.61% in October.
Poj Aramwattananont, Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC), who chaired the JSCCIB meeting on Wednesday, expressed concerns about the global economic climate, including trade tensions and the impact of the ongoing trade war between China and the US. However, he acknowledged positive growth trends in exports from Europe and the US, although the Chinese market has still not fully recovered, with Chinese visitor numbers to Thailand remaining lower than expected.
Poj also noted that labour market vulnerabilities remain, with an unemployment rate of 2.1% in the Social Security Fund in Q2 2025, the highest in two years. The informal labour sector has seen an increase since COVID-19, which has affected labour productivity and consumer spending power.
The Thai Bankers' Association reported on the debt resolution programme for households, under the Debtor-Centric Mechanism, which is currently helping 3.4 million debtors with 122 billion baht in outstanding debt.
The committee also discussed Thailand’s “Reinvent Thailand” project, focusing on six key industries: agriculture, automotive, smart electronics, healthcare, tourism, and retail. This initiative aims to strengthen supply chains and foster cooperation between large enterprises and SMEs.
However, JSCCIB raised concerns about new laws still lacking impact assessments, particularly regarding the Labour Protection Act, Clean Air Act, and Factory Act, which could increase operational costs for businesses, especially SMEs, and dampen investor confidence. The committee urged the government to adopt International Regulatory Impact Assessments (RIA) for these new laws, ensuring fair consultation with all stakeholders.
Additionally, the JSCCIB supports the government’s efforts to modernise the civil service and reduce business barriers through the Regulatory Guillotine process. The committee will work closely with Deputy Prime Minister, Borwornsak Uwanno, to implement these reforms.
The JSCCIB also highlighted the importance of external factors to monitor, including US-Thailand trade negotiations and the US Supreme Court ruling on presidential power to impose tariffs, which could affect global trade dynamics.
Finally, the committee urged the government to expedite 2026 budget disbursements, support SMEs, and implement the “Let’s Go Halves Plus” scheme. These measures, along with “Made in Thailand” policies, are expected to help Thailand’s economy reach 2.5% growth for 2025, similar to the previous year.
