Thailand’s exports grow 5.7% in October, but trade deficit remains at $3.4 billion

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) under the Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand’s October 2025 exports totalled $28.835 billion, growing 5.7% for the 16th consecutive month. Imports amounted to $32.272 billion, up 16.3%, resulting in a trade deficit of $3.436 billion. Excluding items related to oil, gold, and arms, exports grew by 15.7%.

For the first ten months of 2025 (January to October), Thailand’s exports reached $282.982 billion, an increase of 13%, while imports totalled $286.848 billion, up 12.4%, leading to a trade deficit of $3.866 billion.

Nantapong Chiralerspong, Director-General of the TPSO, explained that October’s export growth was driven by strong demand from major markets such as the US, China, and the EU, as well as secondary markets like South Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. Despite pressure from the US’s tax hikes, the export growth continued. However, exports of agricultural products remained in a contraction.

“October’s export growth slowed from September’s 19% increase because Thailand had already ramped up exports, leading to high stock levels in partner countries, which caused a slowdown in exports this month,” Nantapong said.

The 5.7% growth in October came from:

1. Industrial products, which grew by 8.8%, marking 19 consecutive months of expansion. In the first ten months of 2025, industrial exports grew by 17.5%.
2. Agricultural and agro-industrial exports contracted by 5.1%, with agricultural products falling by 14.6%, though agro-industrial products grew by 6.2%. For the first ten months of 2025, agricultural and agro-industrial exports grew marginally by 0.03%.

Nantapong added that export growth for the remainder of 2025 is expected to continue at 10.7-11.4%, albeit at a slower rate. The main drivers will be the continued growth of the digital technology industry, which is in high demand, along with processed agricultural products and food that continue to have strong global demand.

However, factors such as a potential strengthening of the Thai baht towards the end of the year and reduced agricultural production due to flooding will need to be monitored closely by the Ministry of Commerce.

As for the 2026 export target, the TPSO is currently assessing supporting factors and potential impacts. Preliminary signs indicate a slowdown compared to 2025 due to the high base from the previous year and the impact of US taxes. While Thailand has adapted, export growth is beginning to slow.

Geopolitical challenges affecting demand for products and the IMF’s forecast of a slowdown in 2026 global economic growth, along with the WTO’s expectation of slower global trade, could impact exports next year. However, it is still expected to remain positive, with clearer figures expected in December 2025.