November exports jump 7.1% on electronics and AI demand, full-year growth estimated at over 11.6%

Thailand’s exports in November 2025 rose 7.1% year-on-year to US$27.4456 billion, marking the 17th consecutive month of growth, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) under the Ministry of Commerce said. Excluding oil-related products, gold and defence items, exports grew 11.8%.

Imports totalled US$30.1725 billion, up 17.6%, leaving Thailand with a trade deficit of US$2.7269 billion.

TPSO Director-General Nantapong Chiralerspong said exports continue to be supported mainly by electronics shipments, in line with the upswing in the computer cycle and the expansion of modern technologies, including AI, driving strong growth in manufactured goods. However, he warned that geopolitical risks continue to create uncertainty, while key markets such as China, Japan and CLMV show signs of slowing. Thailand’s agricultural exports, meanwhile, remain under pressure from natural disasters and intensified global competition.

January-November performance

Over the first 11 months of 2025, exports expanded 12.6%. Excluding oil-related products, gold and defence items, exports rose 13.7%. Imports during the period stood at US$315.6625 billion, up 12.4%, resulting in a trade deficit of US$4.956 billion.

Manufacturing leads, farm exports contract

November export growth was driven by industrial products, which rose 12.2%, extending growth to 20 consecutive months. Key items that increased included computers and parts, gems and jewellery (excluding gold), telephones and components, printed circuit boards, electric transformers and parts, and switchboards and control panels. Products that contracted included cars and parts, chemicals, and plastic pellets. For January-November, industrial product exports rose 17.1%.

By contrast, agricultural and agro-industrial products fell 9.5% in November. Agricultural products declined 15.7%, contracting for a fourth consecutive month, while agro-industrial products slipped 2.3%, returning to contraction after three months. Items that grew included processed and canned fruit, animal and vegetable fats and oils, fresh/chilled/frozen shrimp, and edible meat and offal. Major items that fell included rice, rubber, processed seafood, fresh/chilled/frozen/dried fruit, cassava products, beverages, and sugar. Overall, agricultural and agro-industrial exports for January-November were down 0.7%.

Markets: US strong, China-Japan-CLMV slow

Exports to major markets continued to expand, with shipments to the United States remaining strong and providing key support. However, several key markets—including China, Japan and CLMV—slowed.

Exports to secondary markets rose 7.6%, led by South Asia, Australia and the United Kingdom, while shipments fell to the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Russia and the CIS. Exports to “other markets” fell 30.1%.

Full-year outlook and 2026 risks

Nantapong said TPSO estimates December exports at around US$25.0-26.5 billion. If exports come in within that range, Thailand’s full-year export value is expected at around US$335-337 billion, implying growth of 11.6-12.1% in 2025. For 2026, the ministry’s preliminary forecast puts export growth in a range of -3.3% to 1.1%.

He said exports for the remainder of 2025 may outperform earlier expectations on the back of strong demand in the digital technology sector and easing trade measures between the US, China and other countries compared with earlier in the year. In 2026, growth is expected to slow due to weaker global conditions and softer demand from major trading partners, clearer effects of US tariff measures, pricing pressures and a stronger baht affecting competitiveness, ongoing geopolitical risks, and severe weather impacting agricultural output.

The ministry said its 2026 work plan will focus on accelerating negotiations on a reciprocal trade agreement with the United States, tightening enforcement of rules of origin, cracking down on nominee businesses, and pushing greater use of FTAs, while working with the private sector to support exports amid weaker demand and persistent uncertainty.