World Bank cuts Thailand’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.6%

The World Bank now expects Thailand’s economic growth, measured by GDP, to slow to 1.6% in 2026, driven by weaker global trade, persistently high household debt, and a slower recovery in tourism. This is below its earlier projection of 1.8%, before a rebound to 2.2% in 2027.

On 11 February 2026, Melinda Good, the World Bank’s country director for Thailand and Myanmar, said Thailand’s GDP growth in 2026 is expected to ease to 1.6%, reflecting the slowdown in global trade, the still-elevated level of household debt, and a cooling tourism recovery. She said growth is projected to pick up to 2.2% in 2027 on the back of improving global conditions, stronger private-sector investment, and foreign direct investment (FDI) projects beginning to materialise as actual investment.

Manufacturing continues to play a key role in Thailand’s economy, accounting for 25% of GDP and 16% of employment—around 6.2 million jobs. Thailand’s environmentally friendly exports make up nearly 10% of total export value and, on average, carry higher technological complexity than exports that are not environmentally friendly.

“Advanced green manufacturing is one of Thailand’s industries of the future and a key mechanism for driving growth, strengthening economic resilience, and creating quality jobs,” Good said.

The World Bank’s latest GDP forecast of 1.6% for this year marks a cut from the 1.8% projection it made in July 2025.

The World Bank said Thailand faces challenges in lifting economic growth amid intensifying global competition. Its latest analysis in the Thailand Economic Monitor report points to advanced green manufacturing as a promising pathway to help restore dynamism to Thailand’s economy.

Expanding into higher-value, lower-carbon industries—such as electric vehicles, solar energy equipment, and energy-efficient electrical appliances—would help raise productivity, create jobs, and enable Thailand to adapt to shifting global demand trends.