People’s Party “fourth line” figures tipped to step up as legal case looms and opposition role hardens
A lèse-majesté case involving 44 former Move Forward MPs could cost the People’s Party a handful of seats and force a leadership reshuffle, with new faces from the party’s “third and fourth line” tipped to take on bigger roles in opposition.
The lèse-majesté (Section 112) case involving 44 former Move Forward Party MPs is emerging as a major constraint for the People’s Party (PPLE)—often referred to as the “orange party”—and could shave its projected MP tally from the 2026 election by around two seats from the earlier estimate of 116-118 seats (roughly 85-87 constituency seats and at least 31 party-list seats).
With PPLE finishing second in the election, it is increasingly expected to take the role of opposition, with party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut tipped to become the opposition leader again.
NACC ruling and Supreme Court timeline
The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) has unanimously voted to substantiate allegations against the 44 former Move Forward MPs. The key accusation is that they intended to weaken protections for the monarchy—seen as failing to uphold Thailand’s system of democracy with the King as Head of State—and that this brought the office into disrepute.
The NACC is expected to forward the case and its opinion to the Supreme Court within 30 days, or by March 9, 2026, for further consideration.
Who could be affected in the new Parliament
Of the 44 former MPs, 15 ran again in the 2026 election under the People’s Party banner. Of these, 12 were placed on the party-list and three ran in constituencies. Based on unofficial results, at least 10 People’s Party candidates are projected to win seats—eight via party-list and two via constituencies.
If the Supreme Court accepts the case for trial, those 10 MPs-elect would be required to suspend their duties automatically, unless the court orders otherwise. If there is a final judgment against them, the eight party-list MPs would lose their seats and face a lifetime political ban, while the two constituency MPs would be unseated and the Election Commission would have to organise by-elections.
If the eight party-list MPs are removed, the next People’s Party candidates in line would move up to fill the vacancies:
- Thanaporn Wichan
- Karunpol Tiensuwan
- Narongdet Ularakul
- Chutima Kotchapan
- Thatsanee Buranupakorn
- Noppanat Meeraksa
- Ratchanat Wanit-sombat
- Nithikorn Boonyakulcharoen
Leadership and “orange era 4”
One scenario being discussed is that Natthaphong could resign as an MP to allow another figure to serve as opposition leader, if a court order forces him to suspend parliamentary duties—avoiding a potential “deadlock” on legislative procedures.
Party secretary-general Sarayut Jailak said the party plans to hold a general meeting in March-April, during which he intends to step down, alongside a broader overhaul of the executive committee to make way for a new generation.
Among names circulating as potential future party leader is Parit Wacharasindhu, the party’s current spokesperson, who could be tasked with steering “orange era 4” through a crisis of confidence and renewed confrontation with nationalist forces.
Another figure seen as a strong contender is Veerayooth Kanchoochat, a deputy party leader and long-time policy drafter since the Future Forward era, who is also listed as the party’s third prime-ministerial candidate.
A new executive team could also elevate “third and fourth line” figures—alongside Parit and Veerayooth—including MPs who became more prominent in the previous parliament, such as members of the party’s economic team: Sitthiphon Wiboonthanakul, Chaiwat Sathaworawijit, Supachot Chaisat, Phakamon Noonanant, as well as Romadon Panjor, who has played a leading role on policy related to security issues in the southern border provinces.
In addition, several behind-the-scenes supporters may be brought forward into formal roles, including Isriya Paireepairit, Natthaya Boonphakdee, Pawoot Pongvitayapanu, and Teera Suteevarangkul, a legal adviser to the party.
The path ahead
For “orange era 4” under the People’s Party banner, rebuilding towards a future bid to form a government may require consolidating experience and credibility as an opposition force—especially after the party’s surge in 2023 (151 seats) was followed by a lower result in 2026 (around 116-118 seats).
How the “orange camp” navigates legal risks and pressure from conservative forces is likely to shape the next phase of Thailand’s politics.
