International schools rise as economy slows and private schools close

Over the past year, international schools have been watched as a rising business, with large capital groups and foreign investors moving in.

Their expansion has run counter to a decline in new births, the continuing closure of private schools and the current situation in which many people complain that the economy is weak.

On market trends, Kasikorn Research Centre estimates that in 2025, the value of the international school business will expand to THB95 billion, up from more than THB85 billion in 2024, while the number of schools is expected to rise to 257.

This reflects continued growth in demand for international curricula, with the main growth factor being parents with purchasing power who are willing to invest in education.

Skilled foreign workers are still rising

Data from LH Bank shows that, on the demand side, the main target groups are wealthy Thais and foreigners working in Thailand.

It expects the number of Thais with assets of more than US$1 million to rise to around 162,000 in 2026, with average growth of 11.7% a year, concentrated mostly in Bangkok and major economic cities.

At the same time, highly skilled foreign workers, such as executives and specialists in finance, technology and services, are also likely to continue increasing.

Data from the Foreign Workers Administration Office states that foreign nationals under Section 62, who are classified as highly skilled workers, have good incomes and benefits.

Between 2020 and 2024, the group grew by an average of about 9.3% a year, and in the first 11 months of 2025, it grew by an average of 13.4%.

This group has the potential to send their children to international schools and is therefore an important customer base for the market.

International schools grow despite falling birth rates

However, when viewed overall, Thailand’s demographic structure is becoming a long-term pressure.

The number of new births and the population under 18 are likely to keep falling.

Between 2020 and 2024, births declined by an average of about 4.5% a year, and in the first 11 months of 2025, they fell by 2.7%.

This will make the future student base smaller and intensify competition among international schools, bilingual schools and private schools, both in attracting students and in making effective use of seat capacity.

Five-year data: private schools close, international schools expand

For Thailand’s private education sector over the past five years, clear changes are beginning to show.

Data from the Office of the Private Education Commission indicates that between 2019 and 2024, the overall number of “private schools” fell from more than 4,100 in 2019 to 3,946 in 2024, or by about 4.8%.

General education schools saw the largest decline, meaning private schools have been closing almost every year.

On the other side, “international schools” have clearly grown in the opposite direction, rising from 207 in 2019 to 249 in 2024, or expanding by more than 20%.

Kasikorn Research Centre data says the number rose to 257 in 2025.

For “student numbers”, private school students across the system fell from about 2.24 million in 2019 to around 2.03 million in 2024, down by more than 9%.

International schools, meanwhile, once had as many as 87,343 students in 2019, but the number dropped sharply during the COVID period in 2020 to a little over 20,000, before gradually recovering to 77,734 in 2024.

Simply put, the overall picture may look subdued, but the “upper market”, such as international schools, continues to grow and is becoming clearer as one of the expanding sectors in Thailand’s education system.

International schools' confident growth can continue

Chang Yao-Lang, chairman of Wells International School, told “Post Today” that international schools continue to grow well, especially in Thailand, where the number is nearly 300.

This is high compared with other countries in the region.

However, the sector faces challenges from the decline in new births and the economic situation, which may force some small schools to close.

He said nearly 10% of schools closed last year.

The schools expected to survive are those that have operated for more than 10 years, while newly opened schools may need to be cautious.

This is why each school must try to upgrade its standards.

Wells International School is still investing continuously and is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) in mid-2026, or by next year at the latest, to develop both education and personnel across four campuses.

Most recently, it has invested more than THB15 million at its Chonburi campus, which opened in 2022 and added the upper secondary level in 2024, along with plans to expand campuses to major provinces it is considering, namely Chiang Mai and Phuket.

“Both provinces are major centres with large populations, especially among the target group for international schools, which is not just Thai children, but should have foreign students making up about 50%. Phuket, in particular, has many long-term foreign residents.”

Chang Yao-Lang also said the expansion approach could involve a “merger” with an existing school in a good location.

If there is a suitable site, the school is ready to jointly operate or merge with it.

At present, preparations are being made in management and leadership personnel to support this expansion.

“I see the direction of the international school market as still showing signs of growth. Although there are some challenges, I believe it can continue.”

Meanwhile, Singapore’s EtonHouse group recently launched Middleton International School Bangkok (MISB), a new campus in the Pinklao area covering more than 20,000 square metres.

Ng Yi-Xian, chief executive officer of EtonHouse International Education Group, said he remained confident in the potential of the Thai market despite the economic slowdown, and believed parents would invest more in education for their children.

The decision to establish the school in Pinklao was made because the group sees the area as a family residential neighbourhood with long-term growth potential and conditions that support the creation of a learning community.

It believes that its more than 30 years of experience in the business and its global education network of more than 100 schools in eight countries gives it confidence to compete in Thailand.

Watch for more investor partnerships and mergers

However, LH Bank sees the international school business as unlikely to accelerate branch openings broadly as in the past.

Instead, it will become more selective, focusing on locations with high purchasing power and clear demand, such as business districts in Bangkok, EEC areas, tourist cities such as Phuket and Chiang Mai, or industrial areas with high foreign investment.

Simply put, operators are moving from a focus on expanding the number of schools to placing more emphasis on the “quality and value” of investment, while avoiding areas where there are already too many schools or where demand is beginning to slow.

On the other side, with the number of children falling and competition intensifying, there is a trend towards more “partnerships”, including mergers or joint ventures among operators, schools and large investors, to help reduce costs and strengthen businesses.

This is similar to what Chang Yao-Lang told Post Today about the campus expansion plan mentioned earlier.

At the same time, international schools are also accelerating adjustments by using more education technology, or EdTech, as well as blended online and offline learning, to improve teaching quality without necessarily expanding schools as much as in the past.