Thai labour market warning as long-term unemployment jumps 27%
NESDC warns long-term unemployment rose 27% in Q1 2026, as AI and electric vehicles are set to reshape millions of Thai jobs.
Thailand’s labour market showed signs of improvement in the first quarter of 2026, supported by growth in the agricultural and service sectors, but rising unemployment and structural pressure from new technologies remain key concerns, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has warned.
Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the NESDC, said during a briefing on Thailand’s social situation in the first quarter that overall employment had continued to recover. However, the latest figures also pointed to warning signs, particularly the rise in unemployment during the quarter.
Thailand had 41.2 million employed people in the first quarter of 2026, up 4.6% from a year earlier. The unemployment rate, however, rose to 0.94%, equivalent to about 390,000 unemployed people. This was higher than 0.88% in the same period last year and 0.70% in the previous quarter.
Most unemployed people were those who had previously been in work. Long-term unemployment, defined as being out of work for more than one year, increased by 27%.
The number of quasi-unemployed workers also rose by 3%, particularly among non-agricultural workers. Hidden unemployment has continued to trend upward, especially in the agricultural sector and among workers with lower levels of education. In 2025, this group increased by 17.8%.
AI and EV shift raise future job risks
Danucha said future unemployment risks also needed close monitoring, particularly those linked to technological change.
According to an NESDC study, more than 8.7 million Thai workers could be affected by generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). Of that number, 2.2 million are considered at high risk of task replacement by AI, especially workers in repetitive or routine jobs such as accounting staff, clerks and programmers.
The transition in the automotive industry is another major concern, particularly the shift towards electric vehicles (EVs). Workers involved in the production of internal combustion engine parts are at risk of being forced to move to other jobs or leave the system altogether.
The NESDC estimated that more than 110,000 workers, or 16.3% of the automotive industry workforce, may have to move into other industries as the EV transition accelerates.
NESDC calls for job matching and higher productivity
On policy recommendations, Danucha said Thailand must prepare more actively for these labour market shifts. He called for faster support for workers affected by the conflict in the Middle East through job-matching measures, as well as assistance for those facing higher living costs while their incomes fail to keep pace or decline.
He also stressed the need to raise productivity in order to reduce hidden unemployment and to reposition high-skilled workers as “AI managers” who can work with and oversee artificial intelligence systems, helping secure their careers in the future.
