Thailand set to overtake China as the no.1 air conditioner exporter to the US in 2025
Thailand to surpass China as the top air conditioner exporter to the US in 2025, driven by a 36% export surge before the new 19% reciprocal tariff takes effect.
The United States’ imposition of a 19% reciprocal tariff on imports from Thailand is expected to create new opportunities for Thai self-contained air conditioner exports, boosting competitiveness against China. Anticipated accelerated exports prior to the tariff’s enforcement could drive Thailand’s air conditioner exports to the US up by 36% year-on-year in 2025.
In 2025, Thailand is projected to become the leading exporter of air conditioners to the US, surpassing China, which previously held the top position. The US market shows a strong preference for window-type (self-contained) air conditioners, accounting for over 95% of total imports, in contrast to the split-system units more popular in Thailand.
During the first seven months of 2025, 59% of Thailand’s air conditioner exports were shipped to the US — nearly all being window-type units.
According to the Kasikorn Research Center, the US government’s decision to impose a 19% reciprocal tariff and an additional 50% tariff on steel components under Section 232 will increase export costs for Thai-made window air conditioners.
Currently, over 97% of Thailand’s air conditioner exports to the US fall under two main categories, where Thailand holds the largest market share. Its key competitors include China, Mexico, and Indonesia. While the new tariffs are likely to intensify competition from Mexico and Indonesia, Thailand stands to gain a competitive edge over China.
Even after price adjustments due to the new import duties, Thai air conditioners remain 13%–23% cheaper than Chinese units, whereas before the tariff, Thai products were 3%–18% more expensive.
Nevertheless, Indonesia may pose growing competition since its import prices are now comparable — or sometimes lower — than Thailand’s. However, Indonesia’s share of the US air conditioner market remains far smaller than that of Thailand and China, which together account for over 86% of the total market.
Kasikorn Research forecasts that Thailand’s air conditioner exports to the US will expand by 36% (approximately USD 651 million) in 2025, driven by exporters’ rush to ship goods before the 1 August 2025 tariff enforcement. Once the 19% reciprocal tariff takes effect and seasonal factors are considered, exports are expected to drop by around 70% in the latter part of the year.
At the same time, Chinese manufacturers relocating production bases to Thailand — combined with Thailand’s favourable tax structure — will strengthen the country’s position as a major production and export hub for air conditioners destined for the US in the coming years.
