The Federation of Thai Industries warns that a $26bn surge in the trade surplus with the US puts electronics and semiconductor exports at risk of sanctions.
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has sounded the alarm over Thailand’s rapidly expanding trade surplus with the United States, warning that key technology and electronic sectors are now at high risk of investigation under "Section 301" of the US Trade Act.
Speaking to Krungthep Turakij, FTI chairman Kriengkrai Thiennukul revealed that Thailand’s trade standing has shifted dramatically.
In just one year, the nation climbed from the 11th to the 7th largest contributor to the US trade deficit. The surplus surged from approximately $45 billion in 2024 to over $71 billion in 2025—a growth rate described as "unusually high."
The ‘Front-loading’ Effect
Kriengkrai attributed this sharp spike partly to "front-loading," where exporters accelerated shipments of goods to the US market to avoid the impact of anticipated reciprocal tariffs.
The surge is most prominent in high-demand sectors where Thailand serves as a vital link in the global supply chain. Critical exports now under the microscope include:
Section 301: A Precise Trade Weapon
Section 301 grants the US Executive branch the authority to impose retaliatory measures or tariffs if a trading partner is deemed to be engaging in unfair trade practices.
Unlike broad tariffs, this mechanism often involves a "product-by-product review."
While tech remains the primary concern, Kriengkrai noted that other sectors, including automotive parts, industrial machinery, and rubber, are also beginning to draw scrutiny from US trade officials.
A Call for Proactive Diplomacy
The FTI is now urging the Thai government to take immediate action by clarifying the facts with the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
The chairman emphasised that the government must explain that the export spike is a result of global supply chain structures rather than an unfair competitive advantage.
Specifically, a significant portion of these high-value exports is produced by US-multinational corporations using Thailand as a strategic manufacturing base.
"We must proactively explain the data on a product-by-product basis," Kriengkrai told Krungthep Turakij. "The Ministry of Commerce and relevant agencies must work together to show that these figures reflect a globalised production model. If we can communicate the depth of these supply chain links clearly, we can mitigate the pressure of potential trade retaliation."
Industry leaders believe that transparent communication is essential to safeguarding Thailand’s export stability in the US, which remains one of the kingdom's most vital trading partners.