Thai Rice Exports Set for Second-Half Recovery as Super El Niño Triggers Global Stockpiling
Major importers scramble for food security as weather risks intensify; the Philippines is expected to double its imports to 6.5 million tonnes
- Thai rice exports are expected to recover in the second half of the year, driven by the Super El Niño phenomenon causing major importing nations to stockpile for food security.
- Key importers are significantly increasing their purchases, with the Philippines projected to nearly double its import volume to 6.5 million tonnes and Malaysia tripling its strategic reserves.
- The surge in demand has already increased the price of Thai 5% broken rice to approximately $408 per tonne from previous levels of $350–$370.
- Despite a slow start to the year, the climate-driven demand is putting Thailand back on track to meet its annual export target of 7 million tonnes.
Major importers scramble for food security as weather risks intensify; the Philippines is expected to double its imports to 6.5 million tonnes.
Thai rice exporters are forecasting a significant recovery in the latter half of the year, driven by the intensifying Super El Niño phenomenon.
As weather patterns threaten global harvests, major importing nations have begun aggressive stockpiling to ensure domestic food security, providing a much-needed boost to Thai export volumes.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, suggests that while the first four months of the year were sluggish, the outlook has shifted.
Thailand is now back on track to meet its annual export target of 7 million tonnes, despite shipping only 2.2 million tonnes between January and April.
The shift is most evident in the revised procurement policies of key neighbours:
- Malaysia has tripled its strategic reserves, moving from a three-month to a nine-month buffer.
- The Philippines is projected to import a record 6.5 million tonnes this year—nearly double its usual volume—to mitigate potential crop failures.
This surge in demand has already seen prices for Thai 5% broken rice climb to approximately $408 per tonne, up from previous levels of $350–$370.
Market analysts are closely watching India, the world’s largest supplier. While India’s high stock levels currently act as a price ceiling, a severe El Niño could force the New Delhi government to prioritise its 1.6 billion citizens by restricting exports.
Any such move would likely redirect a massive influx of replacement orders toward Thai mills.
Navigating First-Half Headwinds
The optimistic forecast follows a difficult start to 2026, where Thai exporters faced significant logistical and fiscal hurdles:
Middle Eastern Disruptions: The conflict in the Middle East has effectively frozen the Iraqi market, which typically accounts for nearly 1 million tonnes of Thai rice annually. Shipping delays and cargo offloading have resulted in a shortfall of 200,000 tonnes against targets over the past three months.
US Tariff Pressures: Exports of premium Jasmine rice to the United States fell by 20% in the first quarter. Increased import tariffs and freight costs have pushed the price of Thai fragrant rice to $1,400 per tonne. This has priced out a segment of the market, leading consumers to switch to cheaper Vietnamese alternatives, which remain competitive despite facing higher tariff tiers.
While geopolitical tensions and protectionist trade policies in the West remain a concern, the climate-driven demand from Asia is expected to be the defining factor for the remainder of the year.
For Thai exporters, the "Super El Niño" represents a pivotal moment to recoup early losses and solidify Thailand's role as a cornerstone of global food security.
