War hits global shares as Asia enters ‘sell everything’ phase

Thailand’s stock market sank on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, with the SET Index closing down 81.90 points at 1,384.61, a drop of 5.58%. During the session, the index fell as much as 117.52 points, or 8.01%, prompting the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) to activate a Level 1 circuit breaker and halt trading for 30 minutes from 12.18pm to 12.30pm — the first time the tool has been used in more than five years, since March 13, 2020.

The index hit an intraday low of 1,341.14, down 125.37 points, and an intraday high of 1,404.73. The main pressure on Thai and global markets remained the war between Iran and the United States and Israel, which began over the weekend.

Asadej Kongsiri, president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, said the decline was consistent with global market moves tied to the Middle East situation. He said the 8.01% drop earlier in the session triggered the circuit breaker, and that one reason for the sharp move may have been that Thailand’s market was closed for a holiday on March 3, 2026, while other markets were open and had already fallen.

He added that since the start of the year, Thailand had been among the better-performing markets in Asia. Even after the past two days of declines, Thai shares were still the third-best performer year to date in the region, behind South Korea and Taiwan.

Pornanong Budsaratragoon, secretary-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said the fall in the SET Index was in line with global markets amid worries over the Middle East situation. She said the SEC was closely monitoring developments and assessing any impact on capital-market stability.

Thai shares ‘have corrected quite a lot’ but risks remain

Dr Kobsak Pootrakool, chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), said Thai shares had dropped sharply. Over two days, the market had fallen by more than 160 points — more than many overseas markets — reflecting that the world was entering an “abnormal” period as geopolitics became more significant and sent shockwaves through assets worldwide, including in Thailand.

He warned that if the Thai market continued falling for several days, it could hurt confidence and domestic consumption, making it harder to implement future economic stimulus. He said the risks and challenges seen today — which pushed Thai shares down by more than 100 points — might only be the beginning. In the short term, the impact on Thailand’s economy was still largely limited to “asset prices”, such as the baht and equities, while the real economy had yet to feel the full effects.

He said the next week should bring a clearer picture of whether the Middle East situation would ease or drag on, which would in turn shape the direction of global energy and capital markets.

Oil is the key variable, analysts say

Kitpon Praipaisarnkit, deputy managing director at UOB Kay Hian (Thailand) Plc, told Krungthep Turakij that the sharp decline matched the broader Asian sell-off, especially in South Korea. He said oil prices were the decisive variable: if crude rose by no more than 20%, the economy and markets could still cope, but a 40%–80% surge — similar to the Gulf War era — would have far more severe consequences.

He advised investors not to panic, to monitor developments closely, assess the real impact, and wait for prices to fall to more appropriate levels before gradually accumulating for long-term investment.

‘Panic more than a structural crisis’

Prakit Siriwattanaket, managing director at Mersion Partner Asset Management, said the Thai market’s plunge — severe enough to trigger the circuit breaker — reflected panic rather than a structural crisis in Thailand’s economy.

He said part of the selling came from investors sitting on sizable gains, who chose to take profits when negative signals emerged, causing the index to fall quickly and sharply. However, he said such a steep drop suggested downside risk was starting to become limited. He added that the index had closed a technical “gap” around the level seen during the post-election results period, which, by technical analysis, could allow a rebound if there were no further severe developments.

On external factors, particularly oil prices, he said conditions had not yet entered a crisis phase. If the situation were truly deteriorating, oil prices should quickly break above $100 a barrel. Instead, prices were still moving gradually, suggesting the Thai market’s fall may have exceeded what fundamentals could justify.

Watan Jitsomnuek, director of strategy analysis at Pi Securities, said part of the Thai decline reflected a delayed reaction to earlier falls in Asian markets. But the main factor undermining investor confidence was the Iran–Israel–US conflict, whose endpoint remained unclear.

He also pointed to risks around the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries about 20% of the world’s oil. If the situation escalated to the point of affecting that corridor, oil prices could spike immediately, feeding into inflation, interest-rate policy and further pressure on the global economy.

Asia hit by heavy selling

Asian markets saw intense “panic selling” on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, extending the US-led sell-off from the prior session, as the Middle East conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel worsened.

South Korea saw the heaviest selling. The KOSPI closed down 12.06%, or 698.37 points, at 5,093.54 — its worst one-day fall on record, breaking the previous record set during the September 11, 2001 shock. Trading was briefly halted earlier in the day by a circuit breaker, but the market continued to fall after trading resumed. Over the past two days, the tech-heavy market has lost more than 18%, while the won weakened to its lowest level in 17 years.

Japan’s Nikkei closed down 4%, falling more than 2,251 points to 54,023.63, its lowest level in a month, while the Topix slid 4.33% to 3,608.54, as investors rushed to sell semiconductor shares. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed down 518.60 points, or 2.01%, at 25,249.48. Indonesia’s JKSE fell 391.86 points, or 4.94%, to 7,547.90.

Matt King, founder of financial markets research firm Satori Insights, wrote in a note that markets investors had previously used for diversification suddenly appeared the most vulnerable after the attacks on Iran.

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore, said markets were entering a phase of “selling everything that can be sold”, with Asia’s sell-off becoming disorderly as markets no longer treated the situation as merely a “one-week headline shock”.