Thai exports climb 9.9% in February, but full-year outlook darkens

Natiya Suchinda, deputy director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), said Thailand’s exports in February 2026 were valued at US$29.43 billion, or 912.56 billion baht, up 9.9% year on year and marking a 20th consecutive month of growth. Excluding oil-related products, gold and defence-related goods, exports expanded by 11%.

The main export drivers remained electronics and electrical appliances, supported by the shift towards modern technology in the AI era and supply-chain diversification amid prolonged geopolitical tensions.

Exports of high-potential agricultural and food products also posted strong growth, including fresh durian, fresh rambutan, fresh longan, fresh pineapple, fats and oils from plants and animals, pet food, and processed chicken.

In the first two months of 2026, exports rose 17%. Excluding oil-related products, gold and defence-related goods, growth stood at 15.8%.

For February 2026, exports were valued at US$29.43 billion, up 9.9% from the same month last year. Imports were worth US$32.27 billion, up 31.8%, resulting in a trade deficit of US$2.83 billion.

In the January-February period, exports totalled US$61.01 billion, up 17% year on year. Imports came to US$67.14 billion, up 30.5%, leaving a trade deficit of US$6.13 billion.

Exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products fell 5.7%, marking a second straight month of contraction. Agricultural exports declined 3.6%, extending their contraction to a seventh consecutive month, while agro-industrial exports dropped 7.7%, also falling for a second straight month.

Key products that recorded growth included pet food, up 4.7%; fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruits, up 62.3%; processed chicken, up 94%; and fats and oils from plants and animals, up 271.1%.

Meanwhile, key products that contracted included rubber, down 26.2%; wheat products and other prepared foods, down 13.5%; cassava products, down 19.1%; sugar, down 53%; beverages, down 19.3%; and fresh, chilled and frozen chicken, down 20.8%. In the first two months of 2026, exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products fell 3.8%.

Industrial product exports rose 13.3%. Key products posting gains included computers, equipment and components, up 49.8%; vehicles, equipment and components, up 6.3%; telephone equipment and components, up 217.7%; machinery and parts, up 28.4%; transformers and components, up 47.1%; and radio, telegraph, telephone and television transmitters, up 251.5%.

Key products that declined included gems and jewellery excluding gold, down 30%; plastic pellets, down 4.4%; cosmetics, soap and skincare products, down 23.9%; and chemicals, down 6.9%. In the first two months of 2026, industrial product exports increased 21.3%.

Exports continued to expand well in many key markets, with electronics and communications equipment serving as the main drivers in the US, European Union and Asean markets.

The Chinese market was supported by agricultural products such as fresh fruit and rubber products. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions also boosted demand for food products in the Middle East. Overall export performance across market groups was as follows.

Exports to major markets rose 16.6%, with shipments to the US up 40.5%, China up 0.4%, Japan up 9.7%, the European Union up 20.6%, and Asean up 17.8%. Exports to CLMV — Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam — however, fell 11.4%.

Exports to secondary markets rose 3.3%, with shipments to Australia up 8.6%, the Middle East 19.4%, Latin America 25.6%, Africa 20.4%, and the United Kingdom 27.2%. Exports to Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), however, fell 30.1%, while those to South Asia dropped 26.1%.

Exports to other markets declined 60.6%.

Key supporting factors behind continued export growth in the first two months of 2026 were the sustained demand for electronics and ICT infrastructure, continued expansion in global industrial production, and growth in high-potential agricultural products driven by niche demand and seasonal factors.

At the same time, pressure factors included the impact of global energy prices on oil-related products amid fragile demand, and price competition in agricultural commodities under pressure from the stronger baht, particularly rice.

For March 2026, exports are expected to decline due to higher freight costs and pressure from energy prices. 

TPSO’s full-year export forecast for 2026 shows three scenarios: in the best-case scenario, exports would grow 1.1% to US$28.23 billion; in the base-case scenario, they would contract 1% to US$27.52 billion; and in the worst-case scenario, they would fall 3% to US$26.8 billion.