Mystery trader dumped US$760m in oil bets just before prices crashed

A massive oil trade placed moments before crude prices slumped has triggered fresh questions over whether sensitive information tied to the Iran conflict may have been used to profit in global energy markets.

The transaction, worth around US$760 million, was executed roughly 20 minutes before Iran’s foreign minister formally announced on Friday that commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would remain open for the rest of the ceasefire period.

According to LSEG data, a total of 7,990 Brent crude futures contracts were sold between 12:24pm and 12:25pm GMT, with the trade valued at about US$760 million at prevailing prices.

Then, at 12:45pm GMT, Iran’s foreign minister posted on X that commercial vessels would be able to pass fully through the Strait of Hormuz during the remaining ceasefire period, in line with the situation in Lebanon.

Within minutes of that statement, global oil prices fell sharply, at one point dropping as much as 11%, underlining how strongly geopolitical developments continue to drive sentiment in energy markets.

The timing of the trade has become the focus of attention because it appeared to anticipate a market-moving diplomatic signal before it was made public.

This was not an isolated case. On April 7, traders placed oil bets worth about US$950 million before the United States and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire.

Earlier, on March 23, investors sold around US$500 million worth of contracts in just 15 minutes before US President Donald Trump announced a delay to planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, a move that sent oil prices tumbling by 15%.

Those repeated episodes have heightened concern among US lawmakers and legal experts that information related to war, diplomacy and government decision-making may be leaking into opaque and highly volatile derivatives markets.

The fear is that a small group of market participants could be gaining an unfair advantage by trading ahead of major policy or military announcements.

Sources told Reuters on Wednesday that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has begun examining several oil trades, including the March 23 and April 7 transactions, both of which took place shortly before major shifts in US policy linked to the Iran conflict.

The latest US$760 million trade is likely to intensify those concerns, particularly because it came so close to a headline that immediately sent prices sharply lower.

For regulators, the central question is no longer just whether these trades were well timed. It is whether anyone acted on information the wider market did not yet have.