Vietnam unfazed by trade war, targets 10% GDP growth next year

Vietnam has set an ambitious goal of achieving double-digit GDP growth from 2026 onward, despite mounting global trade tensions. The government plans to expand free trade agreements (FTAs) across multiple regions and attract foreign direct investment (FDI) that brings advanced technology transfers.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh announced on Monday that Vietnam will target at least 10% GDP growth in 2026 — the highest in its history — emphasizing the resilience of the Southeast Asian economy amid external challenges.

According to Reuters, the ongoing National Assembly session — running until December 11 — will include key government appointments ahead of next year’s Communist Party Congress, setting Vietnam’s five-year economic and policy direction.

“The country will continue to accelerate growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, balancing key economic indicators, and keeping public debt and budget deficits within safe limits,” the prime minister told lawmakers in Hanoi.

Vietnam’s economy is expected to grow over 8% this year, with a 2025 target of 8.3–8.5%. The third quarter saw the fastest growth in three years, driven by factories ramping up exports to the U.S. ahead of new tariffs in early August.

However, the World Bank forecasts Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth at 6.6%, while the IMF projects 6.5%.

Pham Van Mai, Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee, cautioned that the 10% goal remains challenging as “core drivers like exports, consumption, and investment have yet to build strong momentum.” He added that global volatility, intensifying geopolitical competition, and protectionist trade policies continue to pose risks.

Resilient amid trade war pressures

“Vietnam’s economy has proven resilient enough to withstand external shocks and remains one of the world’s fastest-growing economies,” said Pham Minh Chinh.

He projected the country’s total trade value could reach $900 billion in 2025, despite the U.S. imposing 20% tariffs on Vietnamese footwear and textile exports.

FDI disbursements reached $18.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025, up 8.5% year-on-year. Vietnam also plans to sign new FTAs next year with partners in the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and Pakistan to diversify export markets.

According to Bloomberg, Vietnam continues trade talks with the United States. While Washington cut the threatened 46% tariff to 20%, it imposed a 40% transshipment tax on goods routed through Vietnam — a move that adds uncertainty for exporters.

The prime minister said the government will prioritize high-tech and semiconductor investment, aiming to start construction on a new semiconductor plant next year. He also pledged to accelerate key infrastructure projects, including the North–South high-speed rail, satellite internet services, and renewable energy development. Around 3,000 projects are currently under review, and the government has urged agencies to expedite approvals.