Five factors behind grey capital in Cambodia supporting drones against Thailand

Drones have posed significant challenges for Thai security forces. It is speculated that Cambodia may be receiving backing from grey capital groups or illegal businesses thriving in the country, often dubbed the world's scammer capital, providing both funding and equipment.

Although not officially confirmed, academics tracking regional movements have assessed the likelihood and motivations of transnational organised crime (TOC) groups supporting drones in attacks on Thailand.

Thitiwut Boonyawongwiwat, from the Faculty of Political Science and Public Administration at Chiang Mai University, is one of the scholars who has gathered information and studied the situation, specifically looking into border issues and minority groups.

He explained that several motivations drive grey business groups to provide drones to Cambodia’s military. These are outlined as follows.

• Protecting Interests in Grey Businesses: The grey capital groups in Cambodia, involved in gambling, human trafficking, and drug trade, may use drones to retaliate against Thai pressure or interference in special economic zones like Poipet and Dara Sakor (coastal development zones with large resorts and ports), which impact their business interests.
   
• Bargaining with the Cambodian Government: Grey businesses back Cambodia's military in exchange for legal protection and greater bargaining power, especially in areas where the state might use TOC groups as a strategic tool, such as drone manufacturing, launching, or controlling drones.
   
• Creating Border Instability: Symbolic attacks on the border help open grey areas that enable illegal activities to flourish, making it harder for Thai authorities to maintain control and manage security.
   
• Rewarding Strategic Alliances: TOC groups may be used as auxiliary forces in Cambodia’s military operations to preserve relationships and reduce the risk of internal crackdowns.
   
• Enhancing International Bargaining Power: Disrupting Thailand allows Cambodia to gain leverage in international diplomacy while TOC groups continue to benefit economically from the situation.

Thailand’s vulnerabilities in facing grey capital supporting Cambodia

Thitiwut further analyses why Thailand appeared confused in the early stages of drone disruptions. He explains that Thailand struggled to differentiate between state-based threats and semi-state threats, largely because the country is still locked into a framework of traditional state-to-state warfare.

Thailand’s security strategy is based on the assumption that the main threats will come from direct state conflicts. As a result, the country has not sufficiently prepared for "semi-state warfare," where criminal networks act as tools for symbolic attacks and destabilisation of opposing states.

At the same time, Thailand lacks a strategic framework for addressing semi-state crimes. TOC networks, which are supported by neighbouring states (with mutual interests involving state authorities), are often perceived by Thailand as mere criminal groups. 

Consequently, Thailand has yet to develop a focused strategy for confronting this type of threat.