Political vacuum halts new policies, but Finance Ministry backs Q4 growth above 1%

The House dissolution announced by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul on December 12, 2025 has put several flagship projects on hold, as the caretaker government cannot approve new policies—hitting in particular programmes under the Finance and Transport ministries.

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the caretaker administration can only continue measures already approved. As a result, new stimulus initiatives must be slowed, including Let's Go Halves Plus Phase 2, which has been prepared but must await a legal review and a ruling from the Election Commission (EC) on whether it can proceed. He added that new legislation and amendments cannot be advanced during the transition, including initiatives to promote saving through personal savings accounts under the TISA framework.

Ekniti also said international negotiations such as US tariff talks may have reached conclusions, but a caretaker government cannot sign any agreements.

Even so, he insisted the economy would not stumble, saying the economic team had anticipated the dissolution scenario and accelerated key work beforehand. He said policies that can continue immediately include:

• Debt relief: Phase 1 of a debt-resolution scheme for people owing less than 100,000 baht—covering about 2 million borrowers and more than 660 billion baht—approved and set to start on January 1, 2026. Phase 2, expanding coverage to 3.4 million borrowers, may need to wait for the next government.
• Investment: BOI-approved projects worth 470 billion baht, plus new projects worth 170 billion baht under Thailand FastPass, which he said can keep moving during the transition.
• SME support: Soft loans and guarantees totalling more than 267 billion baht will continue into next year, alongside tax refunds. He said more than 60 billion baht in refunds has already been paid to SMEs by December 2025.
• Savings: Monthly sales of savings bonds starting in January 2026, with an issuance target of at least 1 billion baht per month.

He said the government’s policy groundwork—on skills development, debt resolution and fiscal discipline—helped support confidence, noting S&P has maintained Thailand’s credit outlook at “Stable”. Ekniti said he expects fourth-quarter GDP growth to be at least 1%, lifting full-year 2025 growth to above 2%, supported by stronger domestic consumption and the wider circulation of funds from stimulus programmes.

Jindarat Viriyataveekul, director-general of the Public Debt Management Office, said the Savings Bond Plus programme can proceed because it falls under the FY 2026 public debt management plan already approved by cabinet. She said the revamped programme will shift from periodic offerings to monthly sales from January to December 2026, with a minimum monthly quota of 1 billion baht. Bonds will start at 1,000 baht with no maximum, allocated on a “small lot first” basis, with interest rates and conditions to be announced in January 2026. She added that additional channels are planned, including a Bond Connect system under development.

On the transport side, Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn said the dissolution has stalled a planned cabinet proposal to buy back rail concessions from private operators under a “single ownership” model for the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand—meaning the issue will likely be left to the next government.

He said other major projects are also stuck. The high-speed rail linking Don Mueang, Suvarnabhumi and U-Tapao remains unresolved, after the State Railway of Thailand board agreed on December 12, 2025 to propose changes to earlier cabinet decisions and seek approval to amend the PPP contract on two issues: instalment payments for Airport Rail Link rights, and changing state support payments to a “build first, pay as built” approach. Although the proposal has cleared the SRT board and was set to go to the EEC Policy Committee, he said the caretaker government cannot decide such binding matters—forcing the project to pause.

He added that the U-Tapao airport and Eastern Aviation City project cannot issue a notice to proceed because contract conditions require clarity on interface points with the three-airports high-speed rail, which is still pending—meaning piling and construction cannot begin yet.

Anan Phonimdaeng, deputy governor of the State Railway of Thailand and acting governor, said the House dissolution means projects awaiting cabinet consideration must now be left to the next government. He said one of the SRT’s key investment programmes now on hold is Phase 2 of the double-track railway project, covering six routes with a combined budget of 297,924 million baht, as follows:

1. Chumphon–Surat Thani, 168km, 30,422 million baht
2. Surat Thani–Hat Yai Junction–Songkhla, 321km, 66,270 million baht
3. Hat Yai Junction–Padang Besar, 45km, 7,772 million baht
4. Pak Nam Pho–Den Chai, 281km, about 81,143 million baht
5. Thanon Chira Junction–Ubon Ratchathani, 308km, 44,095 million baht
6. Den Chai–Chiang Mai, 189km, 68,222 million baht