Thai rice faces stiff headwinds as Commerce Ministry sets 2026 export target at 7 million tonnes
Thailand set a 2026 rice export target of 7m tonnes as competition intensifies and India releases stocks; plans target Middle East and Africa
- The Department of Foreign Trade has set a 2026 Thai rice export target of 7 million tonnes.
- Thailand faces tougher global competition, India’s large stock releases, and potentially weaker import demand from key partners.
- The department plans to push into new high-potential markets for white and parboiled rice, particularly the Middle East and Africa, while defending existing markets and pursuing government-to-government (G2G) deals.
Arada Fuangtong, Director-General of the Department of Foreign Trade, said Thailand’s rice exports in 2025 are expected to reach 7.8–8.0 million tonnes, exceeding the earlier target due to late-year import demand supported by Thailand’s main-season rice output. She noted, however, that the global rice market remains under pressure from oversupply—especially India’s large inventories being released—which is significantly influencing global prices.
From January to November 2025, Thailand exported 7.29 million tonnes, down 21% year on year. Export value fell 30% to US$4.162 billion (about 136.823 billion baht). Key export markets were Iraq (0.95 million tonnes), South Africa (0.82 million tonnes), the United States (0.73 million tonnes), China (0.60 million tonnes) and Senegal (0.29 million tonnes).
Main rice export categories (Jan–Nov 2025)
- White rice: 3.37 million tonnes (46.23%)
- Thai jasmine rice: 1.60 million tonnes (21.95%)
- Parboiled rice: 1.39 million tonnes (19.07%)
- Thai fragrant rice: 0.54 million tonnes (7.41%)
- Glutinous rice: 0.30 million tonnes (4.12%)
- Brown rice: 0.09 million tonnes (1.22%)
The department said it has assessed the 2026 rice market outlook with the Thai Rice Exporters Association and expects conditions to remain broadly similar to 2025, in terms of global output and importer demand. Competition is expected to stay intense due to favourable weather supporting production and continued releases of large Indian stockpiles.
The department also flagged possible weaker import demand from key partners such as Indonesia, which may reduce imports under its food self-sufficiency policy. Other factors to watch include the global economic outlook, baht strength and volatility, and geopolitical tensions that could raise shipping costs.
Against this backdrop, the department and the private sector jointly projected Thailand’s 2026 rice exports at 7 million tonnes, with the department pledging to work closely with relevant public and private agencies to support markets and drive exports.
2026 Thai rice export promotion plan
- Continue G2G negotiations and deliveries, including rice sales to China totalling 500,000 tonnes, and monitor implementation under an MoU on rice trade with Singapore, covering a maximum of 100,000 tonnes over five years.
- Accelerate expansion of white and parboiled rice markets in high-potential destinations such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and across the Middle East and Africa, while expanding premium rice markets such as Germany, Switzerland and the United States.
- Strengthen ties and confidence with key partners to expand Thai rice exports, including Hong Kong, China, the United States and Canada.
- Promote Thai rice through international trade fairs, connecting importers and exporters and supporting SMEs to join negotiations and sales meetings at major events.
The department also said it plans to promote Thai rice through online channels to raise awareness and boost consumption more broadly, including among younger consumers, through campaigns with restaurants and well-known key influencers.
