Super El Niño threat looms: Thailand and Asean brace for climate shock

The global climate outlook is entering a more fragile phase, as scientists and climate agencies begin warning of a possible El Niño return in 2026, with the risk that it could strengthen significantly later in the year.

Current forecasts do not yet confirm a “super El Niño”, but they do show rising odds of El Niño developing after mid-year.

The World Meteorological Organization said ENSO-neutral conditions were still most likely in the near term, but the probability of El Niño rises to around 40% in May-July, while NOAA said El Niño is likely to emerge in June-August 2026 with a 62% chance. NOAA added that if El Niño forms, there is about a one-in-three chance it could become strong in October-December 2026.

If such a development materialises, it would not be merely another natural fluctuation. It could become a major risk multiplier on top of the broader climate crisis already affecting Southeast Asia, with potentially serious consequences for the environment, the economy and food security across Thailand and the wider Asean region.

In general, El Niño refers to unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which can disrupt weather patterns around the world. Stronger El Niño events tend to bring hotter and drier conditions to parts of Southeast Asia. While media and some commentators use the term “super El Niño” for exceptionally strong events, official agencies are presently signalling rising El Niño odds rather than confirming such an outcome.

For Thailand and other Asean countries, which are among the regions most exposed to climate volatility, the potential impacts would stretch across multiple fronts.

The most immediate threat is drought. Rainfall could fall significantly below normal, with longer dry spells reducing water levels in natural sources and major reservoirs. That would directly affect household use, industrial demand and wider water management. Asean’s specialised meteorological centre says current La Niña conditions are expected to weaken into neutral in March-April 2026, with either neutral or El Niño conditions possible in June-July.

Agriculture, a core pillar of the Thai and regional economies, would also come under pressure. Major producers such as Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia could face weaker harvests in crops such as rice, sugar and palm oil, tightening supply and potentially lifting food prices. GISTDA has specifically warned that lower yields in those countries could feed into wider market pressures.

Hotter and drier conditions would also raise the risk of wildfire, particularly in Indonesia’s peatlands and in agricultural areas where open burning remains a concern. That, in turn, could worsen transboundary haze and PM2.5 pollution across the region, increasing public health risks.

Another danger is extreme heat. Temperatures could rise to record levels in some areas, posing greater health risks to vulnerable groups such as older people, children and those with chronic illnesses.

Higher electricity demand from air-conditioning could also put additional pressure on national power systems. These broader risks are consistent with the warnings from climate agencies that El Niño, if it develops later in 2026, could intensify regional weather extremes.

Amid these challenges, space and geoinformatics technology is emerging as an important response tool. Thailand’s Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency, or GISTDA, says satellite data can support crisis management across several areas.

One major task is water monitoring. GISTDA says imagery from satellites such as THEOS-2 can be used to assess reservoir and surface water areas across the country in near real time, allowing relevant agencies to track water conditions more accurately and plan allocations more effectively.

In agriculture, geospatial data can also be used to analyse vegetation health and detect signs of drought stress, helping agencies respond faster and adjust planting plans where needed. At the same time, satellites can detect hotspots from forest fires and open burning across Thailand and Asean, supporting wildfire control and haze monitoring.

At policy level, spatial data can be integrated into drought-risk maps, helping the government identify disaster areas and allocate support more efficiently and on the basis of evidence.

Even so, preparing for a possible strong El Niño cannot rely on technology alone. System-wide readiness remains crucial, from proactive water management and conservation campaigns to storing more water during the rainy season and prioritising usage.

The farm sector will also need to adapt more seriously, including by switching to lower-water crops, using shorter crop cycles, adjusting planting calendars to weather forecasts and expanding crop insurance to reduce farmers’ risks.

At regional level, closer Asean cooperation on transboundary haze will become more important, especially through stronger enforcement against open burning. Public health systems, meanwhile, will need to prepare for illnesses linked to extreme weather, including heatstroke and respiratory problems caused by PM2.5 pollution.

A possible strong El Niño may be a natural phenomenon, but past experience suggests the damage can still be reduced if governments, businesses and the public prepare in a coordinated way.

For Thailand and the wider Asean region, the combination of early planning, cross-border cooperation and full use of satellite and geospatial technology may prove critical in limiting the impact of the next climate shock.