Fuel fears and price surge dampen Songkran travel mood

Thailand’s tourism sector is heading into the 2026 Songkran festival under mounting pressure, as rising fuel prices and concerns over supply weigh heavily on travel sentiment.

Although authorities have insisted that there is no fuel shortage, uncertainty persists among travellers. The recent increase of 6 baht per litre in fuel prices has further complicated decisions, particularly for middle-income households already facing higher living costs. Many are choosing to wait and monitor the situation before committing to travel plans.

The broader geopolitical backdrop has added to the strain. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have disrupted flight routes through the region, reducing inbound travel and dampening the overall tourism atmosphere, which is expected to be less vibrant than in previous years.

According to the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA), tourism activity could decline by 20–30% during the Songkran period. ATTA secretary-general Adith Chairattananon said tourist numbers have already dropped by around 30%, with flights between Thailand and China in April reduced to roughly 35% of previous levels.

Domestic tourism is also slowing, driven by declining confidence over fuel availability and rising travel costs. The fuel price hike is expected to disproportionately affect middle- and lower-income travellers, while broader economic pressures—including rising living expenses and concerns over potential job losses—are further weighing on demand.

As a result, both domestic and international travel during Songkran are projected to fall by 20–30%, potentially dragging on Thailand’s second-quarter economic performance. Higher energy costs are expected to ripple across sectors in a domino effect.

Yuthasak Supasorn, chairman of the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand and former governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), warned that persistently high fuel prices and restrictions on fuel sales could significantly impact Songkran tourism.

He described the situation as evolving into a “confidence crisis”, particularly among domestic travellers who rely on private vehicles during the holiday. To support the sector, he proposed a three-pronged approach.

On the policy front, he urged authorities to communicate clearly that Thailand has sufficient fuel supplies, noting that refineries can produce up to 175 million litres per day. The current tightness at petrol stations, he said, is largely due to panic buying, which has pushed daily demand from around 67 million litres to over 84 million litres.

He also recommended temporary measures to control refinery costs and stricter oversight of consumer goods pricing to prevent additional cost burdens from being passed on to travellers. Support for domestic flights—such as reduced airport fees—or subsidies for short- to medium-distance travel could also help ease concerns.

From a management perspective, Yuthasak suggested allocating a dedicated “tourism oil quota” and setting up emergency refuelling channels to ensure that public transport and tourists are not stranded during peak travel periods. He also called for relaxed logistics restrictions, allowing fuel transport to operate around the clock to maintain adequate supply in tourist areas.

On the marketing side, he proposed targeted co-payment schemes to stimulate domestic travel, particularly to secondary cities. However, he acknowledged that budget constraints may limit such initiatives, suggesting instead a focus on high-spending domestic tourists travelling shorter distances or opting for premium destinations.

He also stressed the need for proactive communication campaigns to restore confidence among both Thai and international travellers, particularly following warnings issued by the Malaysian consulate in Songkhla advising caution over fuel availability in southern Thailand.

Meanwhile, the Department of Energy Business said preparations are underway to ensure sufficient fuel supply during the festival. Director-general Sarawut Kaewtathip confirmed that oil companies have been instructed to increase reserves and deploy mobile fuel storage units to support peak travel demand.

As of March 23, diesel (B7) production stood at 90.7 million litres, with reserves of 43 million litres. Authorities are also developing a digital dashboard to track fuel distribution from refineries to service stations, allowing the public to monitor supply more transparently.

Additional measures include increasing fuel supply into the system by adjusting reserve ratios and extending transport hours to accelerate nationwide distribution. More than 7 million litres have also been allocated to wholesalers to ease congestion at petrol stations.

Despite the headwinds,TAT governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the agency expects the “Maha Songkran World Water Festival 2026” period to generate around 30.35 billion baht in tourism revenue, up 6% year-on-year.

International arrivals are projected at around 500,000 visitors, generating 8.1 billion baht, representing increases of 4% and 2% respectively. However, these figures are lower than potential due to flight restrictions, rising oil prices and higher aviation costs linked to the US-Iran conflict. Without these factors, foreign arrivals could have grown by up to 7%.

Domestic travel is expected to reach 5.96 million trips, generating 22.25 billion baht in revenue—up 7% and 8% respectively. However, higher fuel costs and supply concerns are prompting many Thais to opt for shorter trips or cancel travel plans altogether. Without the current crisis, domestic travel could have risen by as much as 10%.

TAT is pressing ahead with major Songkran events nationwide to stimulate tourism. In Bangkok, the “Maha Songkran World Water Festival 2026” will take place from April 11–15 at Benjakitti Park and the former Tobacco Factory, featuring parades, drone shows, cultural performances and EDM concerts.

Additional events include “Saneh Art by Songkran Festival 2026” from April 10–30 at Benjasiri Park and Lan Khon Mueang, showcasing large-scale contemporary Thai art installations and workshops.

Across the country, regional celebrations—from Chiang Rai and Sukhothai in the North to Khon Kaen and Udon Thani in the Northeast, and Pattaya, Samut Prakan and Koh Chang in the Central and Eastern regions—aim to attract both domestic and international visitors. Southern destinations such as Koh Samui and Phuket are also hosting cultural and safety-focused events.

Air traffic is expected to remain steady, with Aeronautical Radio of Thailand forecasting around 25,620 flights between April 10 and 19, up 1.8% year-on-year. Most of the increase will come from domestic and regional routes.

However, officials caution that the ongoing conflict and volatile oil prices remain key variables that could ultimately determine the strength of this year’s Songkran tourism season.