Stock checks, fair pricing urged as Thailand energy crisis deepens

Thailand’s energy crisis, driven by unrest in the Middle East, is no longer just a story of more expensive crude. 

Speakers at the Power Game: World in Crisis roundtable hosted by Post Today on Thursday (April 2) warned that the shock is now spreading through transport, household spending, agriculture, retail supply chains, SMEs, plastics and tourism, while also exposing deeper questions over stock management, price-setting and how the burden should be shared.

Middle East turmoil sends Thailand deeper into an energy crunch

Veerapat Kiatfuengfoo, Deputy Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Energy, said the crisis unfolds in stages. 

“The crisis comes in three stages: panic, supply disruption and outright shortage,” he said, arguing that Thailand is not yet facing a total physical shortfall but is already paying much more to keep supplies flowing. 

In the ministry’s view, the problem is not simply whether crude exists somewhere in the global market, but whether Thailand can secure the right type, in sufficient volume and at a price the economy can bear. 

“Thailand can still source oil, but the challenge is finding crude of the right quality, especially crude that can yield enough diesel,” Veerapat said, noting that the country’s fuel system is heavily geared towards diesel demand.

Narongchai Yaisawang, an energy economics scholar, warned that even if the fighting eases, market conditions may not normalise quickly. “Even if the military situation eases, shipping and war-risk costs will not simply return to normal,” he said. 

He stressed that the crisis should no longer be seen as an oil-only problem, as rising LPG and LNG prices are widening the shock from fuel supply into a broader inflationary threat for the whole economy.

Several speakers also argued that domestic market behaviour may be aggravating the problem. Atavit Suwanpakdee, deputy leader of the United Thai Nation Party, said: “This crisis has two separate problems: shortage and stockpiling.”

In his view, the immediate distortion is not only the fear of missing oil, but whether existing stock is being withheld and later sold at higher prices. 

Rosana Tositrakul, chair of the Subcommittee on Public Services, Energy and Environment at the Thailand Consumers Council, said the Iran war would inevitably affect oil supply and prices, but the more immediate concern was domestic distortion.

She argued that even if Thailand had sizeable oil reserves, hoarding within the supply chain could still create shortages and unfair gains. She also said signs of empty pumps before the price rise suggested possible hoarding by traders rather than by consumers.

On refining margins, Rosana called the current level excessive and urged the government, as PTT’s majority shareholder, to cap the refinery margin at 2 baht per litre. She argued that anything above that level should be used to cut the ex-refinery price, which would ease the burden on both the Oil Fuel Fund and the public.

From households to factories: who is being hit by the crisis

For consumers, the energy shock is already becoming a broader cost-of-living squeeze. Rosana warned that without closer scrutiny of pricing and stock, households could continue to shoulder costs that go beyond the real economics of supply.

Agriculture is among the most exposed sectors because energy runs through the entire production chain. “Energy is a cost throughout the entire agricultural chain,” said Piyatida Thiraronarong of the Agricultural Research Development Agency.

She said the burden goes far beyond fuel for pick-up trucks, covering machinery, irrigation, transport and farm operations more broadly. 

“Fertiliser remains the main concern, but fuel also affects machinery, transport and distribution,” she said, warning that the sector faces a double squeeze if fertiliser and logistics costs rise together.

Retailers questioned whether some price increases are arriving too quickly to be fully justified by actual supply-chain pressure. “Retail is downstream, so the impact should not hit all at once,” said Chatrchai Tuongratanaphan, vice president of the Thai Retailers Association. 

In his view, retail and fast-moving consumer goods supply chains usually hold enough stock to delay the full pass-through for some time, making sudden jumps harder to explain. 

“Businesses can cope if the government tells us plainly what is going to happen and adjusts prices step by step,” he said, adding that this crisis could become a structural turning point for retail, logistics and consumer behaviour.

For SMEs, the pain is broader because energy feeds into nearly every cost line. SMEs are being hit very hard because energy feeds into raw materials, utilities, production and logistics, said Sangchai Theerakulwanich, Honorary Chairman and Strategy Chairman of the Federation of Thai SMEs. 

He said smaller operators are not necessarily demanding zero price adjustment, but fairness and access to real support. “What SMEs want is not zero adjustment, but fair pricing and fair access to support,” he said, warning that many businesses still cannot access relief measures in practice.

The plastics sector shows how quickly the energy crisis can spill into daily consumer life. “For plastics, the problem is not only price; supply is already short,” said Chaiwat Nantiruj, chairman and group chief executive of Eka Global. 

He said the extent of the impact depends on the product. Packaging costs for lower-priced goods may rise more visibly, while some higher-value products such as cosmetics may absorb part of the increase. 

Tourism was also flagged as vulnerable. Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association, said hotels cannot stockpile unsold capacity and wait for better prices. “Hotels cannot stockpile their product; an unsold room is revenue lost for good,” he said. 

With airfares rising and travellers becoming more cautious, he warned that domestic travel demand could weaken even before any physical shortage emerges. 

“Airfares are the direct hit, but if fuel becomes scarce the psychological impact on domestic travel could be even worse,” he said.

Shortages, stockpiling and mistrust

One of the biggest policy challenges is distinguishing genuine supply shortages from distortions within the domestic market. Atavit argued that the issue is not simply whether fuel is scarce, but whether existing stock is being sold at prices that do not reflect its true cost. 

Rosana echoed that concern, warning that if no stock check is carried out before prices are raised, “someone can make a windfall while the public carries the burden”.

Veerapat, however, said the Energy Ministry has already put anti-hoarding measures in place. He said officials are tracking oil shipments vehicle by vehicle to see whether deliveries to service stations show unusual patterns or abnormal limits, while also monitoring possible leakages through sea routes and border areas.

To address the risk of fuel hoarding, he said the ministry is building more detailed daily dashboards and tracing systems to follow flows from refineries and storage depots to stations and end users, in an effort to identify anomalies and distinguish normal inventory management from suspicious behaviour.

Another challenge is how long the state can keep cushioning prices without creating new distortions. Narongchai warned that the government must weigh short-term relief against long-term fiscal sustainability. 

“The government must think carefully about how long the Oil Fuel Fund can still support prices if the crisis drags on,” he said. 

That leaves policymakers balancing the need to slow price shocks against the risk that broad subsidies, if prolonged, could leak across the system and become increasingly difficult to finance.

Stock checks, fair pricing and targeted aid

Taken together, the speakers’ recommendations point to a layered response rather than a single cure. The immediate priorities are clearer communication, tighter stock monitoring, stronger action against suspected hoarding and greater transparency around fuel flows and pricing.

Atavit argued that emergency intervention may be needed to stop speculative behaviour. “If we can fix prices during a crisis, the hoarding game ends,” he said. Rosana called for direct intervention in refining gains, saying: “The state should cap excessive refining margins and use that space to reduce the burden on consumers.”

Beyond that, speakers urged more targeted support rather than blanket subsidies. Piyatida called for stronger backing for biodiesel, solar, biomass and biogas in agriculture while protecting food security. 

Chatrchai urged the government to communicate more frankly and adjust prices in stages so businesses can plan. Sangchai called for fairer pricing, easier access to relief and more effective support for SMEs. 

Chaiwat said Thailand should also look beyond the current emergency and build long-term resilience in materials supply. “In the long term, Thailand needs a serious circular plastics strategy and better incentives to make it viable,” he said.

The discussion also suggested that Thailand may need to rethink how it benchmarks fuel prices, how much it relies on imported crude and how it supports sectors that cannot easily pass costs on to consumers. 

Thienprasit argued that support should focus less on headline stimulus and more on reducing operating burdens. 

Ultimately, the speakers agreed that Thailand’s energy crisis is no longer only about events in the Middle East. It is also about how fairly the domestic system works under stress, how transparently authorities respond, and how quickly support reaches the sectors and households most exposed to the shock.