Cabinet shake-up plan reclaims Interior Ministry from Bhumjaithai

Thaksin Shinawatra, the Big Boss of the Pheu Thai Party, made a rare public appearance just before the end of May 2025 amid swirling rumours that he had fled the country. 

He put those rumours to rest by delivering a special keynote speech at an event organised by the Office of the Narcotics Control Board on May 27, 2025, signalling that he remains in Thailand and has not escaped as his opponents claimed. 

This appearance was a clear demonstration that the government’s centre of power remains intact.

The timing also comes amid an intensified campaign by political figures outside parliament, notably Jatuporn Prompan, former leader of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) and currently a key figure in the People’s Fusion Movement. Jatuporn recently publicly embraced former Yellow Shirt leader Sondhi Limthongkul, further stirring political tensions. 

Recently, Jatuporn boldly predicted that Thaksin would deliberately skip the June 13 court hearing, where a judge will review the status of his medical furlough from the Police General Hospital’s 14th floor.

The case surrounding the 14th-floor medical furlough is far from over. The court’s decision to personally conduct the hearing opens a new avenue for extra-parliamentary political manoeuvres. Given past mass protests—from the Yellow Shirts to the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC)—there is speculation that ahead of the June 13 hearing, mass mobilisations could be reignited to escalate pressure outside parliament.

For the past two decades, Thailand’s political turmoil has often followed a familiar cycle: creating pretexts to provoke protests, fueling societal conflict, and generating a political vacuum that eventually compels military intervention through a coup.

Among the many flashpoints attracting protester focus are parliamentary approval of the Entertainment Complex Act, which would legalise casinos on 10% of the territory, and persistent opposition to Thaksin himself, who has yet to serve a day in prison.

Currently, anti-government protest groups outside parliament target Thaksin as a fixed scapegoat—both the government’s Achilles’ heel and strongest rallying point. If Thaksin falls, the political power of the Pheu Thai government, led by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, would instantly weaken.

The phrase “New Thaksin Regime” has been wielded by Warong Dechgitvigrom as a weapon to topple the Pheu Thai government, arguing that “Thaksin tries to claim loyalty to the monarchy but cannot be trusted. When he consolidates power, he becomes dangerous. This is the ‘New Thaksin Regime.’”

June to Watch: Rising Political Heat

June 2025 is being closely watched as a potentially volatile month in Thai politics, with attention focused on how the courts will proceed in the case involving Thaksin Shinawatra and what this means for the current government’s stability.

The Parliament is expected to overwhelmingly approve the 2026 budget bill, totalling 3.78 trillion baht, during the session from May 28–31, 2025. Coalition parties appear united for now, with no major fractures despite earlier threats from factions within the “Blue” camp.

The coalition’s strength in Parliament has increased to 324 seats after the Klatham Party won an additional seat in the Nakhon Si Thammarat by-election, bringing their total to 26 seats. This boost has turned party advisor Thammanat Prompao into a political “winged tiger.”

Meanwhile, the Bhumjaithai Party’s number of MPs has dropped to 69. Although Thaksin publicly reaffirmed unity by embracing party leader Anutin Charnvirakul on camera, senators aligned with the “Blue” faction are aggressively opposing efforts to resolve the Senate collusion controversy.

Cabinet Shake-up Plan: Fight to Reclaim Interior Ministry

The key figure in the Pheu Thai camp clearly states that there is currently no plan to dissolve Parliament for an early election, as the government does not hold the advantage at this time. Holding elections now could risk shifting momentum toward the People’s Party.

The “deep state” power brokers remain committed to one goal: preventing the “Orange Camp” from leading the next government. This means they still rely on red-aligned parties to ally with traditional conservatives to block the Orange faction’s return.

Cabinet Reshuffle Expected After Initial Budget Approval

It is said that after the budget’s first reading, the Pheu Thai leader will play a key political card by signalling Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to initiate a cabinet reshuffle aimed at cooling down the mounting extra-parliamentary efforts to topple the government.

Rumours swirl within the government coalition about whether the “Blue Camp” will remain in the coalition after the reshuffle, amid intense proxy battles involving Blue-aligned senators.

Meanwhile, the power brokers of the Klatham Party are gearing up to join the cabinet, buoyed by recent electoral successes against the Blue Camp in the South.

Timing and Stakes

The cabinet reshuffle is expected around June to July as the Pheu Thai leadership scrambles to regain support and boost the government’s standing. Without strategic moves, the Red Camp risks falling below 100 seats in Parliament.

The Pheu Thai “prophet” understands that winning 200 seats is unlikely, so the party must rely on key allied parties and future loyalists.

After the budget bill’s first reading, the reshuffle will be carefully crafted to position ministers, mindful that the “ethics and integrity” clause remains a hidden weapon for opposition forces. This can be invoked through constitutional bodies to bring down government leaders at any time.

Pheu Thai Eyes Interior Ministry, Prasert a Contender for Minister

In the latest cabinet reshuffle rumours, it’s highly likely that Thaksin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra will move to break with the Bhumjaithai Party by reclaiming the Ministry of Interior from “Sia Nu” Anutin Charnvirakul, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior and Bhumjaithai Party leader. 

Control over local government mechanisms is seen as crucial for building a strong base ahead of the 2027 election.

“Prasert Chantraruangthong,” Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Economy and Society, is named as the frontrunner to become the new Interior Minister. Meanwhile, Anutin is expected to be reassigned, possibly to the Ministry of Education or Commerce.

If assigned, Education Minister Permpoon Chidchob would need to be moved out of that post. Other details remain under negotiation. Former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister to the Prime Minister’s Office Chakrapong Saengmanee is also rumoured to take over the Digital Economy Ministry from Prasert.

Klatham Party’s Cabinet Swap: Atthakorn to Replace Naruemon in Agriculture

The Klatham Party may also reshuffle ministers by replacing Naruemon Pinyosinwat, Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, with Atthakorn Sirilatthayakorn, a close ally of Thammanat Prompao. Naruemon could move to Deputy Finance Minister, a role better suited to her expertise.

United Thai Nation Party Faces Internal Quota Shake-Up

Within the United Thai Nation Party, internal factions—led by party leader and Deputy Prime Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga and secretary-general and Minister of Industry Akanat Promphan—are competing for ministerial posts. There is speculation that ministerial quotas will be redistributed.

If Pirapan remains Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy, Akanat might lose the Industry Ministry. Conversely, if Akanat retains Industry, Pirapan could lose the Energy post, potentially replaced by Supattanapong Punmeechaow. Pitcharat Laohaphongchana is also rumoured as a candidate for Industry Minister.

Pirapan’s position is considered more vulnerable due to ongoing investigations into the alleged distribution of personally branded relief bags and serving on the boards of four companies under scrutiny by the Election Commission. Meanwhile, Eknat enjoys solid support from RTSC MPs and has a strong track record, notably cracking down on counterfeit coin industries.

Cabinet Casualties: Pichai, Paopoom, Theerarat  Likely to Exit

Ministers rumoured to lose their posts include Pichai Naripthaphan (Commerce), Theerarat Samrejvanich (Deputy Interior Minister), Paopoom Rojanasakul (Deputy Finance Minister), and Itthi Sirilatthayakorn (Deputy Agriculture Minister). Former Public Health Minister Chonnan Srikaew is rumoured to return to the cabinet.

Political Game Enters Critical Phase

The political scene is moving into a phase of repositioning. All eyes are on how the “big boss” will reorganise the government to ensure smooth continuation for his daughter.

Amid the red-blue political battle, the anticipated cabinet reshuffle could fracture the Bhumjaithai Party, aiming to curb their power and bargaining strength. However, this could also spark new conflicts, potentially escalating political tensions.