Orange–blue pact on brink as no-confidence move threatens early dissolution

The political roadmap laid out in the Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) between the “Orange Camp” People’s Party and the “Blue Camp” Bhumjaithai Party appears increasingly likely to unravel. 

This follows repeated public remarks from Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul that, should a no-confidence motion be filed, he may have to dissolve the House earlier than planned — potentially as soon as December 12, the first day of the extraordinary parliamentary session, according to Krungthep Turakij.

Under the original MOA, the two blocs agreed on a four-month timeline, with a dissolution date set for January 31, 2026. The intention was to give the government time to amend the constitution and establish an elected Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA). 

Currently, a special constitutional committee is working under a “20-to-1 formula” to avoid contradicting the Constitutional Court’s earlier rulings, and a referendum question on whether the public wants a new charter has been planned.

A key twist lies in reports that the People’s Party has already prepared a draft no-confidence motion, awaiting only MPs’ signatures before submission to the House Speaker. 

Discussions are said to have taken place between party leader Natthaphong Ruangpanyawut and Pheu Thai leader Julapun Amornvivat, prompting speculation that the People’s Party and Pheu Thai may form a temporary alliance to bring down Anutin’s government.

Analysts suggest this could be a strategic move to revive support for the “Orange–Red” bloc, which has been eclipsed by conservative forces dominating what is described as a “blue-tinted state” amid heightened Thai–Cambodian border tensions.

As political temperatures rise, all parties are preparing for the 2026 general election. The People’s Party has reportedly finalised most of its MP candidates and is ready to unveil its prime ministerial contenders and prospective cabinet line-up — signalling confidence it will form the next government.

The party is believed to have three possible prime ministerial nominees: party leader Natthaphong Ruangpanyawut; deputy leader and chief strategist Veerayooth Kanchoochat, regarded as the architect of most party policies; and either Sirikanya Tansakun, deputy leader in charge of economic policy, or Worapob Viriyaroj, a list MP and key policy drafter.

However, the party faces a major liability: the “44 Move Forward MPs case”, relating to the original joint sponsorship of an amendment to Section 112 of the Criminal Code. The case is still under investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), and is reportedly expected to reach the full commission for a decisive vote in December.

According to the NACC, the accused MPs have been categorised into three groups: those who originated the idea, the leading MPs who advanced the proposal, and the MPs who co-signed the bill.

Surapong Intharathaworn, NACC deputy secretary-general and acting secretary-general, earlier stated that charges have already been formally notified. Many accused MPs have submitted clarifications and additional evidence within the required 15-day period, while some requested extensions.

The committee is now reviewing all evidence to conclude the case and submit its findings to the full NACC. He stressed that further investigation is unlikely and that any delays would be procedural rather than political, as all accused have the right to defend themselves.

He also emphasised that the NACC will review each MP individually, as legal responsibility may differ depending on whether a member initiated the bill or merely co-signed it. 

He insisted the investigation is neutral, unaffected by the election timetable, and that the earliest decisions could come from October onwards, with final conclusions expected between November and December 2025 — before the next general election.

Of the original 44 Move Forward MPs, 25 now sit with the People’s Party: eight constituency MPs and 17 list MPs. Several are party heavyweights and are viewed as potential future leaders. 

If the NACC rules against key figures and the matter proceeds to the Supreme Court, affected MPs may be suspended — posing a serious threat to the party’s parliamentary strength after the next election.

Crucially, the party’s three prime ministerial candidates could be reduced to just one — Veerayooth Kanchoochat — a close confidant of the influential faction. The party may then be forced to nominate additional candidates and elevate its second-tier leadership to stabilise internal management.

This leaves the People’s Party in a precarious position. In the midst of this “legal war” against the Orange–Red bloc, the Section 112 case could ultimately shape Thailand’s political direction after the next election.

Such an outcome would give the “Blue Camp” a significant advantage in forming the next government — potentially paving the way for Anutin Charnvirakul to secure a second term as prime minister.

As for the Orange Camp’s dream of a sweeping landslide and a one-party government, it may once again prove to be nothing more than a daytime fantasy.