Breaking down the 3 formulas for government formation: main and swing parties

On February 8, 2026, the question of which political faction or party will hold the most influence in the race to seize power will be decided. The people’s vote will ultimately determine the direction for Thailand.

However, there is another layer of variables to consider. Although the election results will serve as a guiding compass, it cannot be denied that the “power factions” on the board are all waiting for the right moment to change the game.

The political landscape, divided into the “three factions” of blue, red, and orange, is at a critical turning point. Two months after Anutin Charnvirakul’s government built a stronger “blue network,” the situation has evolved.

The “blue camp” is led publicly by Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai Party, and behind the scenes by the influential figure, Newin Chidchob, who sets the direction for their strategy.

The “orange camp” is spearheaded by Natthapong Ruengpanyawut, leader of the People’s Party, with former leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit providing crucial guidance from behind the scenes.

The “red camp” is led by candidate for Prime Minister, Yodchanan Wongsawat of Pheu Thai Party, with the shadow of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra overseeing the battle strategy from prison, directing the party’s electoral tactics through his trusted generals.

Ahead of the election, the “three factions” are ready for a showdown, as every seat in Parliament holds immense value. Every vote that enters the Parliament building is a valuable asset for the “three colours,” a bargaining chip for securing the position of the "nation’s leader."

Polls reveal the opportunity to capture support from the “undecided” group

Despite the popularity of the three parties being relatively close, Nida Poll, conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration, revealed in its fourth-quarter survey of 2025 (conducted from December 4–12, 2025) that 40.6% of respondents still have not decided on a suitable candidate for Prime Minister. 

The second place was held by Natthapong Ruengpanyawut of the People’s Party with 17.20%, followed by Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai Party with 12.32%, and Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democratic Party with 10.76%.

In fifth place was Julapun Amornvivat of the Pheu Thai Party with 6.28%, followed by General Rangsee Kitiyanasap from the Economic Party with 3.88%, and Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan from the Thai Sang Thai Party with 3.12%.

As for the political parties that the public would support, 32.36% of respondents said they have not yet found a suitable party. The second place was held by the People’s Party with 25.28%, followed by the Democratic Party with 11.80%, Pheu Thai Party with 11.04%, and Bhumjaithai Party with 9.92%.

In sixth place was the Economic Party with 2.76%, followed by the United Thai Nation Party with 2.32%, Thai Sang Thai Party with 2.00%, and the Palang Pracharath Party with 1.36%.

With a substantial proportion of voters remaining undecided, the final push to win over these voters will be crucial, and all three parties are strategising intensely for this moment.

Predicted seat numbers force coalition formation

According to predictions, the major parties could secure the following seats: People’s Party (140-150 seats), Bhumjaithai Party (120-130 seats), and Pheu Thai Party (90-100 seats), positioning these three parties as the key players in the coalition formation.

Meanwhile, two smaller parties—“Klatham Party” (30-40 seats) and the Democratic Party (20-30 seats)—could play a pivotal role in the formation of the government.

Given the scenario, a coalition government will likely depend on these three main parties, with the support of smaller parties to stabilise the ruling faction. This coalition will need to be carefully balanced to avoid being overthrown by the opposition.

Three potential scenarios for forming the government are predicted, each reflecting the varying strength of the key players:

• The first scenario sees Bhumjaithai Party (130 seats) joining forces with Pheu Thai Party (100 seats) and Klatham Party (40 seats) to form a coalition of 270 seats. This would likely ensure a majority in Parliament, with potential additional support from smaller parties to stabilise the government.
   
• The second scenario, the “Grand Compromise,” involves the People’s Party (150 seats) joining with Bhumjaithai Party (130 seats) and possibly the Democratic Party (30 seats) to form a coalition with 310 seats. This would provide high political stability, but the challenge lies in the resistance of conservative factions to allow the “orange camp” to share power.
   
• The third scenario, known as the “Risky Game,” merges the People’s Party (150 seats) with Pheu Thai Party (100 seats) and a few smaller parties, yielding a fragile 260-seat majority. This scenario poses risks, especially for Thaksin Shinawatra’s camp, which may face increased legal pressure if the alliance is formed.

The deep state determines the "government faction"

Ultimately, the formation of the government will be shaped by the intricate political manoeuvring behind the scenes, with the so-called “deep state” holding substantial influence over the final outcome.

As the political landscape remains deeply entrenched in its old power structures, the true dynamics of coalition-building will become apparent only after the election results are in.